Barber: Don't believe Warriors will waltz in Game 6 vs. Rockets

The message from Camp Warrior in the immediate aftermath of Game 5 of the Western Conference final series was, pretty much: We got this.

Steve Kerr told stunned reporters Thursday night, “I feel great about where we are right now. That may sound crazy, but I feel it. … And if we settle down a little bit, we're going to be in really good shape.”

Two-time MVP Stephen Curry said, “Just with the talent we have on this team and resiliency and whatnot, you know, we can get the job done.”

Shaun Livingston, Curry's primary backup, pointed to “just what we saw (Thursday) night, offensively, and things we can expose in their defense. And of course going back home. … Really looking to exploit that.”

This carefree tone may have been a tonic to the many citizens who were, at the time, perched on various 12th-floor ledges around the Bay Area. Games 4 and 5 shook Warriors fans to their core as their beloved basketball team, the defending champion and a still-in-bloom dynasty, was out-played, out-hustled and out-thought by the Houston Rockets.

Kerr and his men were imploring the faithful to chill for a couple of days. Yes, Game 7 in Houston will be a gripping and anxiety-provoking event. But Game 6? Come on. The Warriors are returning to Oracle Arena with the greatest cast of talent in the NBA, a locker room brimming with motivation and important clues to cracking the Rockets' defense. Game 6 is in the bag.

Well, I'm here to play Rockets advocate. Consider this a rebuttal.

I'm not predicting a Warriors loss. I still like their chances, especially with Houston point guard Chris Paul sidelined by a hamstring injury. But Game 6 is not in the bag. There is no bag. The Warriors will have to tackle and subdue this opponent with their bare hands, and it will be a rugged fight.

In other words, the Rockets absolutely can win Saturday and thereby advance to the NBA Finals. Here are four reasons why:

1. THE WARRIORS HAVEN'T REALLY SOLVED THE HOUSTON DEFENSE: Kerr praised his team's ball movement in Game 5, noting that it was much better than in Game 4 - which is like saying that Fergie has really improved her national anthem performance since the NBA All-Star Game. There was nowhere to go but up. And in the Warriors' case, the upward mobility was modest.

Please note that Golden State scored 94 points on Thursday after scoring 92 on Tuesday. The fourth-quarter output was 22 points in Game 5, as opposed to 12 in Game 6. Baby steps, right?

So no, I'm not buying the “we solved the Rockets” narrative. All of the Warriors' top players - Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green - have had stretches of success over the past two games. But none of them has been able to sustain it. This team just doesn't look comfortable against Houston's aggressive, switching defense.

2. JAMES HARDEN IS A LIT FUSE: The monster under the Warriors' bed right now is the fact that Harden, who will soon be named the league MVP for 2017-18, has been a disaster for the past six quarters. And the Rockets still won two in a row.

Since posting a productive first half in Game 4, Harden is 8 of 30 (26.7 percent) from the field and an incredible 0 of 17 (hold on … punching the calculator … aaannd … 0 percent) from the 3-point line. Imagine that. James Harden, oh-for-17- and-counting.

The Beard's disappearance is not completely random, because the Warriors' defense has been superb, too. Kerr's team can switch coverage assignments as ably as Mike D'Antoni's. But it's useful to acknowledge that Harden, a gifted and creative scorer, could erupt for a 40-point game at any time, no matter what defense you throw at him.

3. ANDRE IGUODALA MIGHT NOT PLAY: The Warriors have been a different team - a lesser team - since Iguodala, the versatile veteran swingman, bruised his knee late in Game 3. Like a lot of people, I figured Iguodala could have played in Game 4 if the Warriors had felt threatened. I see now that I was wrong. Because Game 5 in Houston was a threat, and still he did not suit up.

The 34-year-old Iguodala is really hurt. Kerr said again Friday morning that Iguodala is making incremental progress.

But will the Warriors' stabilizing agent advance enough increments to play in Game 6? If he doesn't, it's reasonable to expect additional bursts of scattershot play.

4. THE ROCKETS COULD WIN WITHOUT CHRIS PAUL: This is not a popular opinion, because Paul virtually willed the Rockets to victory down the stretch in Game 5. But I'm telling you it's true. Because over the course of this series, Paul hasn't been so special. Even on Thursday, his heroic/tragic night, he finished with a plus-minus of -13, meaning the Warriors outscored the Rockets by 13 points when he was on the floor. No other Houston player was in the minus.

In five games against the Warriors, he has shot 40.1 percent from the field and 36.9 percent from the arc, with an assist-to-turnover ratio (23/9) that is considerably short of his regular-season number. Paul's overall plus-minus is -6, a number skewed by the Warriors' blowout win in Game 3. All in all, I'd say he has been pretty good. Not great.

Granted, Paul's absence would force D'Antoni to turn to at least one player who had fallen out of his rotation - perhaps veteran forward Luc Mbah a Moute. That's significant. But the man most likely to replace Paul in the starting lineup, Eric Gordon, has been a thorn in the Warriors' basketball all series. Gordon is an able scorer, and an underrated defender.

A long-term injury to Paul would diminish the purity of this series. It would not guarantee a Warriors triumph.

So don those blue jerseys and get fired up for Saturday. But don't get ahead of yourself. It's a competitive basketball game you'll be watching, not a victory lap.

You can reach columnist Phil Barber at 707-521-5263 or phil.barber@pressdemocrat.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Skinny_Post.