Grant Cohn: Five reasons the 49ers can beat Seahawks on Sunday

I write this in fear and trembling and apologize in advance if this doesn't happen:

The San Francisco 49ers will beat the Seahawks in Seattle this Sunday for the first time since Russell Wilson became an NFL quarterback. Here are the five biggest reasons why.

1. Wilson can't move like he used to.

Ndamukong Suh of the Miami Dolphins stomped on Wilson's ankle and twisted it Week 1 as Wilson fell to the ground. Wilson suffered a high ankle sprain which he played through Week 2 when the Seahawks lost to the Rams 9-3.

Wilson played with both ankles heavily taped during that game and, when he ran, he was slow. Not elusive. Not the quarterback who could scramble behind the line of scrimmage in figure eights for 10 seconds without getting touched. Every time he took off, someone caught him and hit him hard.

The Niners don't have to worry about Wilson running. They also don't have to worry about his scrambles, his play-action bootleg passes or his read-option runs when he keeps the ball. The Niners can count on the Seahawks' 5-10 quarterback to stay in one spot in the pocket where he'll have to throw over the outstretched arms of two 6-8 defensive ends - DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead. Good luck.

2. The Seahawks' offensive line can't block.

Ever since Seattle traded their All-Pro center Max Unger to the Saints for tight end Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks' offensive line has been one of the worst in the NFL.

Their current center, Justin Britt, is a third-year player who started at left guard last season and started at right tackle the season before.

Their right guard, Germain Ifedi, is a rookie who has an injured ankle. The Seahawks list him as “doubtful” to play against the 49ers.

Their right guard, Mark Glowinski, has started only three games in the NFL.

Their tackles, Bradley Sowell and Garry Gilliam, are players you probably haven't heard of because they're terrible. The Niners should have no problem pressuring Wilson and sacking him.

3. The Seahawks don't have a running game.

The running game used to be the foundation of their offense. But it's averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season for a number of reasons.

Reason 1: The offensive line can't create holes.

Reason 2: Opposing defenses don't have to worry about Wilson running.

Reason 3: Opposing defenses don't have to worry about Marshawn Lynch. He retired.

Reason 4: Opposing defenses don't have to worry about Lynch's replacement, Thomas Rawls, who is averaging just 1.3 yards per carry this season. He has and ankle sprain and is listed as “doubtful” for Sunday.

Reason 5: Opposing defenses don't have to worry about Rawls' backup, Christine Michael, a scat back who carried the ball just 10 times last week.

The Seahawks will have to pass to move the ball against the Niners' defense.

4. Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin will be a non-factor.

Baldwin is Seattle's No. 1 receiver and go-to guy on third down. He typically lines up in the slot where he's extremely difficult to cover. But he should be easy to cover Sunday.

Baldwin took a shot in the back early during last week's game and caught just three passes for only 20 yards. Almost every time he got tackled, he stayed down on the grass for a second or two and seemed to debate whether to take himself out of the game.

Baldwin says he will play against the 49ers. But he almost certainly will be less than 100 percent, and most likely nothing more than a decoy when he's on the field.

5. Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett will be a non-factor, too.

Lockett became the Seahawks' No. 1 receiver last week when Baldwin hurt his back. The Seahawks used Lockett as a deep threat on the outside of the formation and he caught four passes for 99 yards - almost 25 yards per catch.

But Lockett injured his knee in that game, and the Seahawks list him as “questionable.” He practiced both Thursday and Friday, meaning he probably will play against on Sunday, but he won't be fully healthy.

And he most likely will face Niners' third-year cornerback Jimmie Ward, one of the best young players on the team. A former first-round pick. He struggled last week against Kelvin Benjamin, the 6-5 wide receiver for the Panthers - Ward is only 5-11. But he will matchup much better against Lockett who is 5-10. Ward will shut him down.

The 49ers ought to be able to hold down Seattle's injured, limited offense and win by a final score of 13-12.

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the “Inside the 49ers” blog for The Press Democrat's website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.