Grant Cohn: What 49ers will need to do to defeat Tennessee

Winning three of the past four games was neat and all, but beating the Tennessee Titans would be really impressive.

The 49ers' three wins came against the Giants, Bears and Texans — three losing teams who aren't going to the playoffs. They had nothing to play for.

The Titans are playing for a playoff spot. They currently are the fifth seed in the AFC playoff race, and their record is 8-5. They need to the beat to the 49ers to stay ahead of the Bills, Ravens and Chargers in the wild card race. Losing would be catastrophic for Tennessee.

Are the 49ers good enough to beat a potential playoff team?

Here are five things the 49ers must do to beat the Titans.

1. The offense must pick up the blitz.

The Titans defense has recorded 37 sacks this season — fifth most in the NFL.

Last week, the Titans didn't have outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, who leads the team in sacks with 7.5. He missed the game with a knee injury. Without him, the Titans still sacked Cardinals quarterback Blaine Gabbert eight times.

Morgan will miss Sunday's game against the 49ers, but the Titans pass rush still will be dangerous. That's because their pass rush doesn't depend on one player.

Every player on the Titans defense is a threat to sack the quarterback. Their defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, loves to blitz. He invented the zone blitz — two or three linebackers or defensive backs rushing the quarterback while one defensive lineman drops into zone coverage.

LeBeau will try to trick Jimmy Garoppolo by blitzing with different players. LeBeau will blitz a cornerback one play and an inside linebacker the next.

And LeBeau will blitz the right side of the 49ers offensive line, which is missing right tackle Trent Brown. The 49ers placed him on IR with a shoulder injury on Friday.

Garoppollo must recognize where the blitz is coming from, and his teammates must block the extra pass rusher. Otherwise, Garoppolo may not make it through the game.

2. Kyle Shanahan must find a new way to roll out Jimmy Garoppolo.

One way the 49ers can protect Garoppolo from the onslaught of blitzers is to roll him out of the pocket.

As an offensive coordinator, Shanahan is known for his play-action rollout pass game. That is foundational to his scheme.

This season, everyone seems to have figured out how to defend Shanahan's play-action rollout pass game. It almost never works. The quarterback fakes the handoff, keeps the ball, runs a 'naked bootleg' out of the pocket (that's when he rolls out by himself without a blocker) and runs into a defender almost every time. The defender usually forces the quarterback to throw a quick, short pass, or throw the ball away.

Shanahan needs to change how he moves the pocket. The naked bootlegs aren't fooling anybody.

He needs to make an offensive lineman or a tight end roll out with Garoppolo and block. This is called a 'waggle,' and it will give Garoppolo time to throw. If there's no waggle, it could be a major draggle.

3. Garoppolo must not throw the ball up for grabs.

It's too soon to make a definitive judgment about Garoppolo, but things seem positive after two starts with the 49ers.

There is one area of concern: Last week against the Texans, Garoppolo kept chucking the ball into heavy coverage in the middle of the field during the first half. He threw one interception, but easily could have thrown three before halftime. The Texans defenders dropped two passes they should have caught. Garoppolo got lucky.

What would people say had he thrown three picks in the first half last week? There's a fine the line between success and failure.

Garoppolo may not get so lucky against the Titans if he keeps lobbing the ball into coverage. He must make better decisions.

4. The defense must stop the Titans running backs.

Last season, the Titans had the best red-zone offense in the NFL. They scored touchdowns 72 percent of the time they had the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

A big reason for their success in the red zone was their quarterback, Marcus Mariota. He was a threat to keep the ball and run for a touchdown. Then he broke his leg at the end of last season.

This season, Mariota has been playing with a sprained knee. He's not the run threat he used to be. And the Titans offense has suffered. Their red-zone efficiency has dropped to 58 percent. Still good, but not dominant.

Mariota's ability to run used to give the Titans an extra dimension which was a burden to defend. Now, opposing defenses can focus on shutting down the Titans running backs — DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.

Murray and Henry are good, but so is the 49ers run defense. It's allowing only 3.9 yards per carry this season — seventh best in the NFL. The Niners can stop the Titans backfield duo.

5. The defense must force Mariota to throw on third down.

The 49ers will win if they stop the run and force Mariota to move the chains with his arm.

The Titans passing game is limited. Their most dangerous weapon is tight end Delanie Walker, who's good, but should be a complimentary piece rather than the centerpiece of a passing attack.

The Titans hoped their centerpiece would be rookie wide receiver Corey Davis. But Davis has made only 25 catches for 256 yards and no touchdowns this season.

The Niners will be in good shape if they can keep the Titans in third-and-medium and third-and-long. Those are must-pass downs, and Mariota doesn't do well with those. His quarterback rating on third down this season is 68.8.

This will be a close, low-scoring game. Both teams will run the ball frequently and use up clock. I expect the 49ers will win by a field goal.

Final score: 49ers 23, Titans 20.

Grant Cohn covers the 49ers for The Santa Rosa Press Democrat and Pressdemocrat.com. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.