Grant Cohn: Warriors face steep, uphill climb to repeat as champions

If the Warriors manage to win the NBA Finals this year, after all they've gone through, considering all they could face in the upcoming playoffs, they will have pulled off their greatest accomplishment yet.

But winning the Finals won't be easy.

This season's journey to the championship will their most difficult. Here are the top five issues the Warriors face:

1. They're physically vulnerable.

They may still the best team in the NBA when they're healthy, but they're not remotely healthy.

Draymond Green is playing with an injured shoulder which could require surgery during the offseason. Kevin Durant has a crack in the cartilage that binds his ribs to his sternum and could miss the rest of the regular season. And Klay Thompson has a broken thumb on his shooting hand and could miss the rest of the regular season, too.

The Warriors expect Durant and Thompson will make full recoveries by the time the playoffs start, and they may. But, the Warriors don't know what to expect from Stephen Curry. Can't know.

Curry could miss the rest of the regular season and part of the playoffs with an injured right ankle, which he has sprained four times since December. The Warriors downplay his injury, refer to it as a 'tweak.' Whatever that means. His famous ankle is shrouded in mystery, and it is unclear how injured he is.

Even if Curry returns for the playoffs, which he probably will, he almost certainly won't be 100-percent healthy. His mobility on offense and defense could be compromised. The last time the Warriors had an immobile Curry in the playoffs — 2016, when he sprained his knee — they lost in the NBA Finals.

The Warriors are totally different without Curry. When he plays, they're the best 3-point shooting team ever. When he doesn't play, they're a bad 3-point shooting team.

Bad 3-point-shooting teams don't win championships anymore.

2. They're mentally vulnerable.

Once the mind goes, the body soon follows.

The Warriors are running a marathon, and are keenly aware of just how far they've gone since their first Finals appearance in 2015.

They've played in 62 playoff games the past three years. That's an extra three quarters of a season. A tremendous workload for any team to endure.

But, don't take it from me. Take it from Steve Kerr and his players. For months, they've said how difficult it is to make the Finals four seasons in a row, and how special their run of success has been.

It sounds like the Warriors may have hit the wall. Sounds like they may be getting their excuses in order now, so they can protect themselves from criticism down the line just in case some team eliminates them during the playoffs.

3. They're not the No. 1 seed.

Every year the Warriors went to the Finals, they had the best record in the NBA and home-court advantage in every playoff series. They fought for home court. Talked about how important it is.

This year, they won't have home-court advantage — the Houston Rockets will.

'It's a harrowing experience,' Kerr said sarcastically before the Warriors 98-93 loss to the Sacramento Kings last Friday. 'I'm just trying to process it all. Second in the conference would just be devastating.

'No, we're just playing. We're not really paying too much attention to the standings. We're in a good position big picture no matter what happens, no matter what seed we are, because our injuries are all relatively minor.'

All of a sudden, the Warriors don't pay attention to the standings. Home-court advantage just doesn't matter to them anymore.

Don't buy it.

When the Warriors were a cinch to take the top seed, Kerr said it was important to finish No. 1. He said it many times. Now, he's changing his tune.

Still, when the Warriors are healthy, they're talented enough to win the championship without having the No. 1 seed — Kerr is right about that. Lots of lower-seeded teams have won the championship.

But, conceding the top seed may be the mark of a team with issues.

'Players are just as smart as Steve (Kerr),' Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said last month. 'Meaning, they know that they have to get to the playoffs to try to win it. And I learned that in Boston. No matter how many speeches I gave during the regular season, they still (thought), 'OK, great, but we have to get healthy and we have to be ready for the playoffs.'

'At the very end of our run, we started thinking we didn't need home-court advantage. And I thought in retrospect that probably hurt us.'

The Warriors have the same mentality. And it could hurt them, too.

4. They're facing bigger threats in the Western Conference than ever.

The Houston Rockets may be better than the Warriors. When the Rockets have their three best players — James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela — their record is 38-2, and 2-0 against the Warriors.

The Portland Trail Blazers are another threat. They've won 13 games in a row, and are 2-1 against the Warriors this season. And the Utah Jazz have won 21 of their past 23 games, and are 1-1 against the Warriors this season.

The Warriors will have to fight like hell just to make the Western Conference final.

5. They're limping into the playoffs.

When the Warriors were limping into the All Star break, they weren't concerned. They had plenty of time after the break to play well and build momentum for the playoffs, they said. Momentum they wanted and needed.

Forget all of that.

They've lost three of their past five games, and they're missing their top three scorers. The Warriors aren't building momentum — they're trying to get things together down the stretch.

The time is now.

Grant Cohn covers the Bay Area sports for The Press Democrat and Pressdemocrat.com in Santa Rosa. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.