Raiders preview: Expectations are high
Sit down, please. The following announcement may cause dizziness, heart palpitations, blurred vision, disorientation and, depending on the colors of your replica NFL jersey, euphoria or angst.
The Raiders could make the playoffs this season.
Granted, that's a lot different than saying the Raiders will make the playoffs this season. This is, after all, the NFL, and a lot can change for a team between July and December. But the Raiders might have improved more than any other team during the offseason, and are suddenly cast into the unfamiliar role of media darlings.
Forbes selected Oakland quarterback Derek Carr as one of four NFL players on the cusp of a breakout season. The NFL Network's Elliott Harrison predicted that Jack Del Rio will be NFL coach of the year, and that the Raiders will win the AFC West. Quick reminder: The guys who won the Super Bowl less than six months ago, the Denver Broncos, are in the AFC West.
Recently, four ESPN “insiders” were asked which NFL team they'd like to coach right now. Respected reporter John Clayton said the Raiders. “This is a team on the rise with a great young quarterback in Derek Carr, young stars in Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, plus a great offensive line,” Clayton wrote.
This is a surreal twist for a team that hasn't gone to the playoffs, or even posted a winning record, since 2002. How did this happen? Or we are we simply deluding ourselves?
Here are five things you need to know about the 2016 Raiders and their elevated expectations.
GM Reggie McKenzie got stuff done
For the third consecutive year, the Raiders were among the NFL leaders in available cap space when the offseason rolled around. This time, they seem to have nailed it.
Time will tell, of course, but it's possible that no team improved its roster through free agency more than the Raiders did in 2016. On March 10, the first day that free agents could officially be signed, the Raiders announced deals with offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele (who is expected to start at left guard for the time being), edge rusher Bruce Irvin and cornerback Sean Smith. That's three position groups upgraded with three hefty checks.
These are not the expensive, big-name graybeards of the Al Davis era, either. Osemele is 27 years old, Irvin is 28 and Smith 29. All of them are in their primes. Each could make an immediate impact on the Raiders' fortunes, and could stick around for a while.
General manager Reggie McKenzie was at it again on April 7 when he signed safety Reggie Nelson. He's a little older at 32, but Nelson is coming off a bounce-back year with the Bengals.
The 2016 haul follows a pretty good crop of 2015 free agents that included center Rodney Hudson, defensive tackle Dan Williams, wide receiver Michael Crabtree and linebacker Malcolm Smith. Two years ago, McKenzie was fighting for his job. Now he's regarded as one of the NFL's up-and-coming GMs.
Pass rush should be team's strong suit
The Raiders had 38 sacks last season, right around the league average of 37.1. But one of the main pieces in that pass rush was anything but average. In just his second season, end/linebacker Kahlil Mack had 15 sacks, second only to Houston's J.J. Watt, who was the AP defensive player of the year. Mack's five-sack game against the Broncos in Week 14 was transcendent.
In projecting the top AFC defenders for 2016, the analytics group Pro Football Focus ranked Mack second - behind Watt and one spot ahead of Denver's Von Miller, the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
Mack should get better this year, and not just because he's only 25. Opponents will be less able to rotate blockers to his side now that Irvin is in Oakland. Irvin is a bona fide pass rusher in his own right, with 22 sacks over four seasons in Seattle.
Flash-forward to the stretch run of the regular season, and it boggles the mind. Aldon Smith was among the most feared quarterback-chasers in the league during his first three seasons with the 49ers. Eventually he sidetracked his career with a parade of legal transgressions. Now a Raider, he is suspended by the NFL for the accumulation of those offenses, but is scheduled to return in November.
If Smith can return to form, or anything close to it, in 2016 - well, you might feel sorry for Alex Smith and Philip Rivers in December.
Secondary got an upgrade
In signing Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson, McKenzie may have helped turn the Raiders' biggest liability into one of their top assets.
Even as so many things were going right in Oakland last year, the defensive backfield was a mess. Yes, Charles Woodson was heady and opportunistic in his final NFL season, and newcomer David Amerson was a revelation at one of the cornerback spots. But the Raiders had trouble filling the other secondary positions, and at times were picked apart by enemy quarterbacks.
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