Barber: More important things for 49ers, Raiders than No. 1 pick

The 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. They improved to 4-10 and temporarily lost their grip on the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Man, they really screwed up.

At least they did if you believe a certain subsector of NFL analysis and fandom. It’s clearly not the majority. I’m not trying to build a straw man here; most 49ers lovers were thrilled that the team ended its 10-game losing streak against Pete Carroll’s band of bullies. But as soon as the Niners’ overtime win was in the books, you heard the murmurs again.

And you’re hearing them in the East Bay, too, because you may have noticed that the Raiders also are competing for that glorious pick. As it stands heading into Week 16, the 3-11 Cardinals hold the No. 1, the 3-11 Raiders the No. 2, the 4-10 Jets the No. 3 and the 4-10 49ers the No. 4. Strength of schedule is the only tiebreaker.

The murmurs sound like this: “(Your Team Here) should do everything it can to lose the remainder of its games and secure the highest draft position possible.” Fortunately, it doesn’t make much sense.

It actually does in the NBA, because (a) one great player can almost instantly change the fortunes of a team, and (b) that player is relatively easy to identify in the draft. Basketball players don’t wear a lot of clothes when they play, and it may as well be a metaphor. It’s a transparent game. No one is a 100-percent lock, but when you look at, say, Duke freshman Zion Williamson, you can be somewhat certain that he will be a dynamic NBA player, in any system.

Tanking makes sense in Major League Baseball, too, for different reasons. Not because of the high draft picks it brings - those are highly speculative in baseball, where talent can take years to develop. But because MLB “tanking” normally involves trading veteran players for prospects. If you are willing to write off two or three seasons as fodder, those prospects can (but don’t always) add up to something great.

None of that is true in the NFL. “Tanking” in this case means losing games on purpose. And compared to the NBA, NFL draft picks are a series of dice rolls. Even the high ones.

Look at the past six years of NFL drafting. Here are the No. 1 overall selections in that time frame: tackle Eric Fisher (Chiefs), defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (Texans), quarterback Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), quarterback Jared Goff (Rams), defensive end Myles Garrett (Browns) and quarterback Baker Mayfield (Browns).

Here are the No. 2s: tackle Luke Joeckel (Jaguars), tackle Greg Robinson (Rams), quarterback Marcus Mariota (Titans), quarterback Carson Wentz (Eagles), quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) and running back Saquon Barkley (Giants).

The No. 3s: defensive end Dion Jordan (Dolphins), quarterback Blake Bortles (Jaguars), linebacker Dante Fowler (Jaguars), defensive end Joey Bosa (Chargers), defensive lineman Solomon Thomas (49ers) and quarterback Sam Darnold (Jets).

The No. 4s: tackle Lane Johnson (Eagles), wide receiver Sammy Watkins (Bills), wide receiver Amari Cooper (Raiders), running back Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), running back Leonard Fournette (Jaguars) and cornerback Denzel Ward (Browns).

And the No. 5s: defensive end Ezekiel Ansah (Lions), defensive end Khalil Mack (Raiders), tackle Brandon Scherff (Washington), cornerback Jalen Ramsey (Jaguars), wide receiver Corey Davis (Titans) and edge rusher Bradley Chubb (Broncos).

There are some really good players on the list, and a few yawners. So if you’re starting a team, who ya got? Which draft slot? Do the No. 1s look better than the No. 4s? Are the No. 2s more accomplished than the No. 5s? That isn’t obvious to me. In fact, with the jury still out on the more recent arrivals, the fifth picks have more cumulative Pro Bowl nods (seven) than any of the others. The second picks have just one.

Granted, every general manager in the NFL looks at data like this and thinks, “Well, those other teams made some mistakes. I sure won’t.”

In other words, they see noticeably more value in No. 1 than No. 2, and more in No. 2 than No. 3. Fine. It’s not as much as they think, but let’s agree you get slightly more value the higher you pick (never mind that you’re paying slightly more for higher picks, too). I contend that this small gain is outweighed by the harm done in losing those games.

I can’t prove the theory, though, because the harm is intangible.

I’ll say this: I have covered a lot of NFL teams, and I have seen some that were just playing out the string. The athletes are pros, with professional standards. But it was clear that as the losses mounted, they weren’t playing for anything more than pride and the chance to land a job by getting some decent work on tape. And I have seen the opposite - bad teams that were fighting like hell to improve and win.

After wins, the 49ers social media department posts Kyle Shanahan’s locker-room victory speeches. Did you see the one Sunday, after that big win against Seattle? These guys are 4-10, but the joy in the room was pure and unbridled when Shanahan gave a game ball to cornerback Richard Sherman, who had deep history with the Seahawks. Same back on Nov. 1, when the Niners beat the Raiders and quarterback Nick Mullens got the ball for his Cinderella impersonation.

And give some credit to the Raiders, too. They were pretty awful at Cincinnati on Sunday, but for the most part they have refused to give up under Jon Gruden. The win against the Steelers two weeks ago is a good example.

I don’t want to overestimate the power of these moments, because talent and sound coaching will always be the most important generators of football success. But learning how to win counts for something. And seeing hard work rewarded with victories counts for something, too; otherwise, the losses become demoralizing. Failure can be contagious in sports. It can become a habit unto itself.

So bless the 49ers for winning that game, and for trying to get the next two as well. And good for the Raiders for staying in the fight. Let the Phoenix Suns tank. Let the Baltimore Orioles tear down their roster. The lowliest NFL teams will all get their opportunities to draft elite players in April. And they may get something more. They may learn the joy that comes with winning.

You can reach columnist Phil Barber at 707-521-5263 or phil.barber@pressdemocrat.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Skinny_Post.