This year has been rocky for Sonoma County government, and next year could be even rougher.
That is the outlook that has begun to crystalize, in charts and spreadsheets, for county officials who’ve spent months analyzing how President Donald Trump’s funding cuts are expected to play out for the North Bay’s largest single employer and key provider of safety net services.
County officials expect those aid programs, depended on by many of the most vulnerable residents, to be hit hardest, with big pullbacks in federal support in store for the Human Services Department, responsible for cash and food assistance and health insurance for the needy, among a host of other programs.
The impacts are next expected to ripple through the both the Department of Health Services, which oversees public health, mental health, substance abuse and homelessness programs, and the Community Development Commission, which helps spearhead affordable housing efforts for the county, though CDC Executive Director Michelle Whitman said no current threats exist to the agency’s funding.
Local nonprofits that partner with the affected departments, in turn, are bracing for impacts.
And while some of the fallout is already apparent, the larger funding upheaval is not expected to roll in until next year and will likely force county leaders to choose what programs to prioritize.
“We’re going to have to make the best decisions, but they’re going to be bad decisions because so many things are going to fall through the cracks,” Supervisor David Rabbitt said during a special board meeting Tuesday night focused on the anticipated harm of federal cuts.
Officials are bracing especially for cuts to Medi-Cal and CalFresh, the state’s medical insurance and food assistance programs, both of which draw heavily on federal support.
County mental health programs, housing support and immigration services are also at risk of deep cuts.
And the reductions are expected to impact tens of thousands of local residents. Sonoma County currently has 42,700 people enrolled in CalFresh and 135,398 people enrolled in Medi-Cal. Those numbers are expected to drop if not plummet under new federal eligibility standards that were part of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, passed in July by the Republican-controlled Congress.
The Board of Supervisors reckoning with that legislation and other spending moves by the White House took place in a special hearing Tuesday that spanned two hours. It featured presentations from county department heads, county financial and legislative officials and local nonprofit leaders.
Their assessments were based on notices of funding cuts, policy changes the Trump administration has already announced and cuts the administration has hinted at but not yet confirmed.
The county’s $2.7 billion budget for the current fiscal year includes $386.3 million in federal funding, primarily in social services and infrastructure.
Already, the county has received notification that $3.88 million in grant funding will be eliminated and an additional $2.2 million has been proposed for elimination. A total $136.7 million is considered at risk — the majority of which, $123.2 million, is funding for safety net programs.
Impacts from Trump’s tax policy and spending bill, or HR1, will largely take effect in the fall and winter of 2026, meaning the county budget for next fiscal year, starting in July, will be “difficult to put together,” said Peter Bruland, deputy county administrator and budget chief.
The stiffened work requirements for those seeking medical and food assistance, as well as increased eligibility redeterminations and greater restrictions on eligibility for immigrants are expected to force many people to drop out of the programs, officials said.
The county’s share of cost for those programs, including Medi-Cal and CalFresh, is also expected to rise. Beginning Oct. 1, 2026 the county will be responsible for at least an additional $2.8 million in cost for CalFresh, said Angela Struckmann, the county’s human services director.
Fewer people on Medi-Cal also means the county will lose reimbursements from billing Medi-Cal and increase the population of people completely reliant on taxpayers and health providers to pay for services, said Nolan Sullivan, the health services director.
The county regularly turns to local nonprofits to help plug gaps in services and strengthen the reach of programs, especially through disasters, including the pandemic and wildfires.
This week, a dozen nonprofit leaders told the Board of Supervisors they are prepared to help — but are also facing strain from resources already stretched thin and may in fact need the county’s help.
“Some nonprofits won’t survive what’s about to happen and what has been happening,” said Jennielynn Holmes, chief executive officer for Catholic Charities of Northwest California. “Our ability to get services out fast and cost effectively will be challenged here locally.”
Complicating the county’s and nonprofits’ ability to plan are several factors including: the pending outcome of lawsuits the county and other local governments statewide have joined challenging new federal grant conditions; the need to plan for cuts that the Trump administration has not yet announced but could target; and the government shutdown now in its third week.
Already the Redwood Empire Food Bank, the region’s largest nongovernmental food aid operation, is navigating cuts including $2 million in cancelled food deliveries earlier this year. CalFresh cuts stand to deepen the need among the most vulnerable, said Allison Goodwin, the organization’s president and CEO.
“If the Redwood Empire can help, we’re willing partners but we might need to ask for help, which we’re not used to asking for,” Goodwin said.
In addition to those who are food insecure, the county’s homeless, immigrant and LGBTQ+ populations are at risk of falling through the cracks, nonprofits leaders said Tuesday.
The Graton Day Labor Center was so full of people looking for work on that day they ran out of chairs, said Karym Sanchez, lead organizer for the center. Zero people were hired that day, he added.
Layoffs are on the rise and more people are signing up at the center looking for work, but fewer people are hiring, Sanchez said.
The county’s local network of health clinics is bracing for greater need as people lose insurance, but new restrictions at the federal level may limit who they can treat. Undocumented immigrants and those with “unsatisfactory” immigration status are particular targets.
“The ones that are most likely to lose their coverage are the most vulnerable patients. They’re the ones with the greatest medical, behavioral health, social needs. They’re unhoused, they have mental health needs, they’re moving from place to place, they’re rural, they’re older adults,” said Tracy Mendez, chief executive officer for Aliados Health, a network of health centers.
She added that enrollment changes to Medicaid, the federal health program for low income and disabled people, and Medi-Cal means the health centers are looking at $20 million in total revenue losses.
The Board of Supervisors on Tuesday directed county staff to meet with local nonprofits to develop strategic plans responsive to the challenges forecasted ahead for the entire system of care in Sonoma County.
Come budget season, those plans may require prioritizing certain needs over others, such as health care or housing, Rabbitt said.
You can reach Staff Writer Emma Murphy at 707-521-5228 or emma.murphy@pressdemocrat.com. On X @MurphReports.
