California is shaking off the worst of the delta variant surge
LOS ANGELES — COVID-19 hospitalizations have dropped by half from the summer peak, as California continues to steadily, if slowly, shake off the worst of the delta surge.
California reached its summer peak in hospitalizations on the last day of August, when 8,353 people with confirmed COVID-19 were in the state’s hospitals. As of Monday, there were 4,467 people hospitalized — a number last seen in early August as the delta surge picked up steam.
California is now recording half as many new daily COVID-19 hospital admissions as the nation overall on a per capita basis.
Perhaps more promising still is that the wave of COVID-19 patients has started to recede dramatically in areas that were hit hardest during the latest spike.
In Fresno County, where hospitals were at times so overwhelmed that officials feared they would be forced to ration healthcare, the daily census of COVID-19 patients was 284 as of Monday — a decline of 31% from the summer peak a month ago.
Hospitals in Placer County, which stretches from Sacramento’s suburbs to Lake Tahoe, are now caring for 110 COVID-19 patients, half the total seen during the surge’s record-setting heights.
And in tiny Del Norte County, on the northwestern edge of California, where the lone hospital was once so jammed that it had to arrange for helicopters to transport those stricken with COVID-19 elsewhere for treatment, only three coronavirus-positive patients remain, down from a peak of 23 in late August.
The recent trends are being met with cautious relief in those corners of the state that most acutely felt the pandemic’s latest punch.
“I’m hoping that with the downward trend of COVID patients in the hospital that we’ll start seeing a little bit more relief for the hospitals,” Dan Lynch, director of the Central California Emergency Medical Services Agency, said during a briefing Friday. “But I think, today, the hospitals are breathing a little easier than they were a week ago or two weeks ago.”
But, as has been proven time and again in the COVID-19 era: past is not prologue. Just because conditions are improving now doesn’t mean that progress will continue.
Look no further than the state’s experience last year, when a summertime resurgence of the coronavirus gave way to a prolonged decline in hospitalizations and cases through the early fall.
What followed was the most tortuous phase of the pandemic to date — a viral assault that infected millions of Californians and killed tens of thousands.
“We are very encouraged by the downward trends over the past couple of weeks, but we realize ... this could change as we move into the winter and holiday season if people aren’t careful, and also if we don’t maintain momentum on increasing vaccination rates,” said Dr. Christina Ghaly, Los Angeles County’s director of health services.
Unlike some other parts of California, which were hit with unprecedented numbers of new infections and coronavirus-related hospitalizations over the summer, L.A. County saw comparative success in mitigating the worst health outcomes.
During the 2020 summer surge — when vaccines hadn’t yet been authorized for widespread distribution — L.A. County was reporting about 2,800 new coronavirus cases a day at most, and the number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 peaked at around 2,200.
But this past summer, the peak of COVID-19 hospitalizations was notably lower, at more than 1,700, even though L.A. County hit an even higher number of daily coronavirus cases, more than 3,300.
The county also recorded fewer COVID-19 deaths: 44 a day during the peak in the summer of 2020, versus 30 deaths a day this past summer.
“This pattern of more infections, but less severe and fatal illness, is likely due to the highly infectious delta variant and the ability of vaccines to blunt serious illness and death,” said county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer. “And while we’re glad for the lower death rates this year, these are largely preventable deaths, and they remain a tragic reminder of this virus’s destructive potential, particularly among those unvaccinated.”
The decline in those hospitalized with COVID-19 follows a similarly large decrease in how many people are being infected in the first place.
Over the last week, California has reported an average of 6,169 new coronavirus cases a day, according to data compiled by The Times. At the height of the summer surge, that rolling case average exceeded 15,000.
But even as transmission continues to fall, officials stress that those who have yet to be inoculated remain vulnerable.
According to recent data from the California Department of Public Health, unvaccinated residents are roughly eight times more likely to get infected with the coronavirus — and almost 18 times more likely to die from COVID-19 — than their fully vaccinated counterparts.
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