COVID-19 cases are dropping in Sonoma County. Could the new ‘stealth’ variant trigger another surge?

Despite the spread of the highly infectious “stealth omicron” variant, BA.2, in other parts of the country, COVID-19 cases in Sonoma County continue to decline or remain stable, local health officials said Tuesday.

But Dr. Sundari Mase, the county’s health officer, warned against a false sense of security.

“We are not out of the woods with COVID-19 yet — we are in the watch and wait mode,” Mase said, adding that it’s still “extremely important” for the vaccinated to get boosted and for those who have not been vaccinated to get their first and second shots.

Mase said second boosters are now available for residents 50 and older and people with compromised immune systems.

During a COVID-19 update to the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors Tuesday, health officials reported that the current transmission rate is an average of 6.4 new daily cases per 100,000 residents. Meanwhile, the overall test positivity, the share of COVID-19 tests that result positive, is 3.4%.

“We’re actually doing quite well in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic. We have plateaued at about 6 cases per day per 100,000,” Mase said.

Officials said virus-related hospitalization continue to decline, with only 10 COVID-19 patients in local hospitals. Since the start of the year, 64 people with COVID-19 have died.

Kathryn Pack, health program manager for the county’s epidemiology team, said the current effective reproductive number, “r-effective,” of COVID-19 in Sonoma County remains below 1 at this time, meaning virus transmission is likely still decreasing.

Officially, only 15 cases of the BA.2 variant have been detected in the county, though public health staff said the actual number is likely higher as not all positive COVID-19 specimens are genotyped.

Mase said wastewater surveillance in other counties in the region shows that the majority of cases detected in wastewater are BA.2. She added that it remains to be seen whether BA.2 will cause another spike in cases.

“While it is more contagious than the original omicron, BA.1, we are not seeing data that suggests there’s increased severity,” Mase told supervisors Tuesday.

Dr. Urmila Shende, the county’s vaccine chief, emphasized that current boosters are effective even for the BA.2 variant. She said it’s crucial for people who are eligible to get their boosters, as they will provide protection if there is a surge with BA.2.

Last week, the federal government approved second boosters for adults age 50 and older, as well as certain immunocompromised individuals who received an initial booster dose at least four months ago.

Additionally, Shende said adults who received a primary vaccine and booster dose of Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen COVID-19 vaccine at least four months ago may now receive a second booster dose using an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.

Shende reported several successes in the local effort to vaccinate residents in disadvantaged communities. She reported that 85% of the county’s Black residents have been fully vaccinated, along with 84% of Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander residents.

Shende also said the share of fully vaccinated Latino residents in the county has reached 71%, which she called a “milestone.” Officials said that throughout the pandemic, local Latinos and other minorities have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

“It’s wonderful to see those vaccination rates up so high,” Shende told supervisors. “We’re making great progress, and again it’s because of intense work and education and creating trust … in collaboration with community-based organizations.”

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.