COVID-19 deaths mount in September, but cases appear to be on the decline

Sonoma County health officials on Friday reported another four COVID-19 deaths, increasing to eight the number of coronavirus-related fatalities in September and bringing the total since the start of the pandemic to 376.

Officials said the deaths are the result of ongoing fallout of a summer surge largely driven by the highly transmissible delta variant and by local residents who have not been vaccinated.

All four of the fatalities reported Friday were among unvaccinated individuals who died at local hospitals.

Dr. Sundari Mase, the county’s health officer, said a growing number of people being treated in intensive care are younger than what hospitals were seeing last year. Deaths among the unvaccinated are particularly unfortunate, she said.

“These are largely preventable deaths,” Mase said. “Everybody please, please get vaccinated. Do it for your own safety and for the safety of your friends and family.”

Mase said the source of many new cases is gatherings among unvaccinated individuals. She said vaccinated residents do get infected and some die, but these are mostly people advanced in age and with severe health conditions.

The county’s official fatality count does not yet include the death of Corrections Lt. Bobby Travelstead, 40, a veteran of the Sheriff’s Office who died on Sept. 1 of COVID-19 complications.

Because of the time it takes to confirm COVID-19 deaths with the state, there is often a lag of days or weeks before local county public health staff can officially register or log pandemic-related deaths.

According to public health data, the number of deaths reported last month currently stands at 40, making it the fourth deadliest month of the pandemic and the second most fatal this year. January, with 68 deaths, saw the most COVID-19 fatalities.

Health officials reported the first virus-related deaths of September on Tuesday. The latest fatalities reported include three unvaccinated people with underlying health conditions; a man between 60 and 70 who died Sept. 2; a woman between 30 and 40 who died Sept. 4; and a man between 70 and 80 who died Sept. 11.

A man between 50 and 60, also unvaccinated and with no underlying health issues, died Sept. 9.

According the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker, an estimated 34.4% of Sonoma County residents have some form of underlying health problem. Such conditions include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema, heart disease, diabetes or chronic kidney disease, among others.

But local health officials said Friday that transmission rates are on the decline and if that trend continues, there should be fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths as we enter the fall. “I would think that if everything declines, we will also see a decline in mortality,” she said.

The current transmission rate is an average of 13.7 new daily cases per 100,000 people. For vaccinated people it is 7.3 new cases per 100,000. For unvaccinated people, it is 25.1 new daily cases per 100,000 unvaccinated people.

Kathryn Pack, health program manager for the county’s epidemiology team, said local community transmission of the virus has been declining, as it has across the Bay Area.

Pack said the virus’s “effective reproductive number” is currently .74, the second lowest of the nine Bay Area counties as of Sept. 12. An effective reproductive number of less than 1 means the number of cases is likely decreasing.

But Mase said local residents should not let their guard down just yet. Residents should continue to get vaccinated, wear masks and practice good hygiene, because though case rates are declining they’re still “fairly high,” she said.

“We’re going in the right direction, but we’re not out of the woods yet,” she said.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.