Guerneville residents begin to exhale after week of more dire flood warnings

GUERNEVILLE — The weeklong wait for the lower Russian River to spill its banks was set to end late Monday, as floodwaters were expected to crest overnight just above the 32-foot flood stage in town.

At times since the first in a parade of atmospheric river storms struck around the New Year’s holiday, the forecast called for much worse.

So it’s been a week of preparing here, even as residents endured dangerous winds that toppled perhaps thousands of trees and caused widespread power failures.

Top of mind was the memory of past floods, including the devastating 2019 disaster, when floodwaters topped 45 feet in town, unleashing more than $155 million in damage across western Sonoma County.

Nothing of that order was on tap Monday, when amid sunny skies, some local residents who strolled down to Johnson’s Beach actually wondered if the river level was receding.

It was rising still, and by 3 p.m. had reached 30 feet. It was set to reach as high as 32.1 feet by 1 a.m. Tuesday, fed by streams and high-elevation runoff all the way up into Mendocino County.

Chris and Leslie Hofelich, 27-year residents of Monte Rio, had placed signs alerting motorists to the flooded road in front of their Monte Cristo Avenue home.

It helped keep local 4x4 drivers out enjoying the flooded roadways from speeding through and sending waves into their garage, the Hofelichs said.

The river needs to rise to 42 feet for their first floor to flood, Leslie Hofelich said, describing her and her husband as proud “river rats” for whom the swollen winter river was just a part of life.

Forecasts accompanying the series of storms that began last week initially worried them, but the Hofelichs weren’t concerned Monday. If fast to rise, the Russian is also fast to recede, Leslie said.

“Give the river 12 hours and it can make a big difference,” she said. They have not evacuated for fire nor flood, Chris Hofelich said. Equipped with a generator and gas appliances, “we’re pretty good at this stuff,” he said.

Still, with soils saturated and floodplains already under water, officials worried that the worst was yet to come this winter — from another storm that has yet to appear in any model of the National Weather Service.

“We got a lot of people in low areas to evacuate, I’m really worried they won’t go next time,” county Supervisor Lynda Hopkins said Monday, standing in the parking lot of the Bank of America building where the county had set up a community support center.

Hopkins, wearing rubber wading boots, said coastal communities were hit hardest by the storms’ powerful winds, which brought down countless trees and knocked out power lines. In many parts of the west county, residents continue to be without power.

Margo Fontes, a Rio Nido resident of 20 years, said she still hasn’t gotten power to her Rio Nido Road home. Montes said she’s been cooking on a small propane grill and has a gas insert for her fire place.

“This is how I go to bed,” she said, wearing pants and a black, puffy winter jacket. “I go to bed fully dressed, my husband, too.”

On Monday, Fontes visited other Rio Nido residents, at Sunrise Garden, a volunteer garden along Rio Nido Road. Fontes and others said several Rio Nido residents who live in low-lying areas had already evacuated.

Throughout town, water coursed down streets, ditches and drains, making its way to the river.

Moire Martin, 70, also of Rio Nido, said she and other residents are doing what they can to keep storm drains clear of debris. Streams and creeks sometimes run under houses and yards, Martin said.

“If a clog happens, then flooding will occur in neighborhoods in higher elevations,” Martin said.

Dutch Bill Creek, a small, forested tributary of the Russian River, held a thundering current in the hills and had flooded its banks in Monte Rio, closer to the coast. Flooding and a small landslide had closed a stretch of Old Bohemian Highway but the main road into Monte Rio was open.

Water surrounded the base of several multistory homes along the old highway. No one appeared to be home Monday afternoon.

At the parking lot off the Monte Rio Bridge, a popular summer swimming destination, water had risen to cover a boat ramp and the trunks of some trees but had not flooded the lot. A young man baited a fishing rod as he prepared to cast into the swollen river.

With the river in Guerneville cresting at just above flood level, Sonoma County Fire District spokeswoman Karen Hancock described the results as mostly “nuisance flooding.”

Hancock said her biggest concern for the incoming storm overnight was the formation of convection cell thunderstorms that have the potential to drop a large amount of rain over a concentrated area in a short period.

Still, roadway flooding won’t be as severe as it was in 2019, Hancock said. “Guerneville won’t become an island at 32 feet,” she said.

East of Guerneville, at Burke’s Canoes in Forestville, one group of residents did not (and would not) leave, even as the waters of the Russian River approached their igloo-style home — a family of four feral cats between 10 and 15 years old who have lived along the river since they were kittens.

Vesta Copestakes of Forestville cares for the cats, which were spayed and neutered by Forgotten Felines many years ago. Kate Vasey, who used to live in Forestville and cared for the cats for many years, visited the cats’ igloo on Monday to make sure they had food.

“The water is supposed to reach their feeding area tomorrow,” Vasey said.

Copestakes, former publisher of the Sonoma Gazette, said the feral cats should be fine. “They have been through floods before so we have faith they will return,” Copestakes said in text message.

Back in Guerneville, at 5 p.m. Mill Street and Mill Court — a flood-prone neighborhood in the northwestern part of town alongside Fife Creek — had a foot or more of standing water.

Richard Brodhagen has lived in a house above a garage on Mill Court since September 2021. Water has flowed into the garage the last two nights, but ebbed back out during the daytime. On Sunday, the water had receded from the garage by 10 a.m., but Monday it had taken until the afternoon, around 2 p.m.

Judging by the water mark on the interior garage walls, the garage, which is above street level, had held 3-4 inches of water at its high point Sunday night. Brodhagen expected a similar ebb and flow overnight into Tuesday.

There was good news too, however. Utility crews had just restored his electricity for the first time since Wednesday night’s windstorm.

Hopkins, whose district covers west Sonoma County, said the storm damage to roads is likely going to be in the millions, if not tens of millions of dollars. More storms could be even more disastrous.

“There is an increased potential for catastrophic road failures,” she said.

Josh Leone, a local tech entrepreneur, echoed Hopkins’ worry about the next big storms. He said many of the west county’s most vulnerable residents had to go to great lengths to move their trailers from low-lying areas.

He said he’s worried some may simply ignore calls to evacuate should the river begin to rise again this winter.

“I’m worried people will think we cried wolf this time,” he said.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.

You can reach Staff Writer Andrew Graham at 707-526-8667 or andrew.graham@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @AndrewGraham88.