How long will the dry spell last in the Bay Area?
After a spell of wet weather, the San Francisco Bay Area has been bathed in sunshine over the past several days and forecasters say the dry conditions could continue through Thanksgiving with no rain in sight, the National Weather Service said.
This is discouraging news in a region struggling with drought conditions, but weather service forecaster Ryan Walbrun said the dry conditions are more typical for this time of year than the moisture-rich storms that swept Northern California in recent weeks.
"It's important to remember that historically this is a dry time of the year," Walbrun said.
Meteorologists can generally predict weather with some accuracy seven days out and Walbrun said confidence is high that the Bay Area will not see any rain through Friday Nov. 19. To the north, Mendocino County could get some rain on Tuesday, but it's not expected to impact the Bay Area.
Long-term models looking as far out as the Thanksgiving holiday show no rain, but Walbrun said confidence is lower with this forecast. A 10-day forecast is only right about half the time, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration says.
"I wouldn't draw to many conclusions out of that," Walbrun said of the long-term forecast. "I think you'll hear a lot in the news about cold air over the East Coast. A lot of times when that happens we get warm and dry weather on the West Coast."
While the storm door may be closed in the Bay Area, Walbrun said the Pacific Northwest has continued to see rain and that's promising.
The dry weather over the Bay Area was the result of a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast and desert Southwest that's pushing up temperatures. High 60s to low 70s were widespread across the Bay Area on Friday afternoon and more unseasonably warm weather is in the forecast through Sunday.
The high pressure is expected to break down Monday, bringing cooler temperatures early next week with afternoon temperatures dropping into the mid- to low 60s.