Predicted Bay Area storm has potential to end fire season

The rainy season may officially kick in next week, with the potential to end the wildfire season, according to a long-range forecast by the climate forecast branch of the National Weather Service.

However, to do that, the storm system predicted over the northeastern Pacific Ocean Oct. 20-24 would have to bring in 2 inches of rain to the Bay Area and other parts of Northern California.

That's not very likely, according to meteorologist Brayden Murdock.

“We’re finally getting into that transition period as we get into fall where we see more of these low-pressure systems coming in,” said Murdock, who works for the National Weather Service in Monterey. “This will be the first low-pressure system of the water year that started Oct. 1, coming in over Oregon and some portions of Northern California with a cold front. It has the potential to bring up to 2 inches, but that would be the highest of the high.

“Usually these systems translate into drizzle for us,” he added. “I don’t want to get anybody’s hopes up.”

Rain is predicted to start as early as Tuesday night, according to the weather service forecast, but that’s a long way off, Murdock said. A lot could change in that time, he pointed out.

The rainfall would be a “possible near-record breaking precipitation for late October,” according to the Climate Prediction Center. “But that’s because October rainfall tends to be so low,” Murdock said.

The climate center predicted the storm could “quell ongoing wildfire activity (and) help improve drought conditions.”

Murdock, though, said, “to take that with a little bit of a grain of salt.” But he hopes it pans out.

“It would be nice to see some wetting rains that could usher in cooler conditions,” he said. “We’ll keep an eye on it.”

The forecast for Thursday in Santa Rosa is sunny, with a high near 79. Temperatures are predicted to drop to the high 60s as the week continues.

Patchy early morning frost is forecast for northwestern Mendocino County for Thursday.

You can reach Staff Writer Kathleen Coates at kathleen.coates@pressdemocrat.com.