Russian River expected to flood as powerful storm expected to topple trees, knock out power

This is not a drill.

That’s the message from weather forecasters and emergency responders bracing for a dangerous and disruptive storm aimed directly at the North Bay, bringing torrential rain and high winds expected to wreak havoc across the region beginning Wednesday.

In an abrupt shift from the enduring drought that has parched the area for more than three years, emergency personnel are preparing for flooding on the Russian River and elsewhere, as well as mudslides and extended power outages as up to 10 inches of new rain at the highest elevations is expected over the next 48 hours.

That’s on top of an already saturated landscape, meaning even the smallest of creeks is expected to surge, while the Russian River was forecast to swell by more than three times its current level and top its banks by several feet in Guerneville by Friday morning.

Authorities were urging residents to take action, even if it’s just staying off the roads.

“It’s going to be a doozy,” said Cyndi Foreman, Sonoma County Fire District division chief and fire marshal.

The storm poses so much risk, the National Weather Service has taken the unusual step of warning residents of potential loss of life.

“The reality is that between flooding and downed trees, if people don’t take mitigation, there is a high likelihood for lost life,” Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Walbrun said Tuesday.

At least one school, Monte Rio Elementary, along the lower Russian River, plans to release students early Wednesday to avoid the heaviest band of storm activity. Other schools in the county except those that are slated for longer winter breaks are set to open Wednesday for at least a minimum day, according to Eric Wittmershaus, director of communications.

The lower Russian River, which had a surface height below 11 feet on Tuesday, was forecast to reach flood stage of 32 feet in Guerneville on Thursday afternoon and crest at 35.4 feet around 1 a.m. Friday, as predictive models shifted with the forecast through the day Tuesday.

If it tops 35 feet, that would bring water into businesses and homes in low-elevation areas of town, including several resorts that sustained substantial damage during the last flood of February 2019. That year, the Russian River rose to 45.4 feet Feb. 26, the highest level since 1995.

But there could be flooding across the region as creeks get plugged with fallen trees and other debris or backed up because their confluences — where they join with other streams — rise so high they can’t take more water.

“It just depends on where the heaviest rain is as to what's going to flood,” Monte Rio Fire Chief Steve Baxman said.

After an already drenching December in Northern California, the incoming storm is one of three successive atmospheric rivers targeting the region over the next week to 10 days.

In the North Bay, it is expected to arrive early Wednesday with light to heavy rain.

By afternoon, a steady, cold deluge is expected to settle in, extending for 20 or 24 hours across the region, into Thursday afternoon or evening, said Rick Canepa, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Inland valleys are predicted to get up to 5 inches of rain between Wednesday and Thursday, he said. Coastal hills and mountains could see twice as much.

Combined with 20 to 30 mph sustained high winds and peak gusts during the heaviest rain of 50 mph at low elevations — and 70 mph at the highest elevations — the storm is poised to pack a wallop in any case.

The saturated ground, which already has loosened tree roots and the soil around power poles, means any wind is likely to topple some, causing power failures, closing roads and contributing to the risk of injuries.

Storm impacts more commonly visited on remote, rural areas are likely on valley floors where most people in the region live, said Santa Rosa Fire Marshal and Division Chief Paul Lowenthal.

He cited the potential for widespread power outages, trees across roadways and atop cars.

“We have already seen trees fall into people homes,” said Supervisor Lynda Hopkins, who represents western Sonoma County. “It is a huge concern that with that much rain and that much wind at the same time we could see substantial tree falls affecting our road network as well as people’s homes.”

It’s going to be important that people limit their driving during the heaviest band of rain and wind, Lowenthal said.

There’s also potential for soil instability on hillsides and burn scars, Sonoma County Emergency Management Director Chris Godley said.

“A lot of the soils, especially in west county, are relatively unstable, he said. “We’re in a relatively geologically active area, where there’s a lot going on.”

Some of the discussion has focused on the Glass Fire scar, a roughly 67,500-acre area that burned in 2020, searing steep slopes and drainages throughout the Mayacamas Range east of Santa Rosa.

It remains subject to debris flow if rainfall reaches a very critical rate of about one inch per hour for enough time to liquefy the ground.

The incineration of vast numbers of trees and extensive vegetation means more runoff than usual is coming off those mountains, altering the hydrology of local streams and flood channels in the Santa Rosa Creek watershed, and raising the potential for flooding, Lowenthal said.

Warnings about the storm seem to be making an impact, particularly given the dire suggestions about loss of life.

Baxman said there was heavy demand for sandbags at the Monte Rio Fire Station. In Cazadero, a habitual wet spot in the hills above the lower Russian River, the general store was busy with people stocking up.

“They’re definitely taking it seriously,” said clerk Stacy Parmeter. “Some guy just spent like $400 on tons of batteries and tons of milk.”

Customer Robert Weber purchased stores of beer wine and pizza, including frozen pizza he could wrap in foil and heat up on his wood stove if the power goes out.

“Like small towns do, everybody’s taking to everybody and it’s like, ‘OK, let’s go home and batten down the hatches,’ ” Weber, 58, said.

Parmeter said with Austin Creek already high, everyone was afraid Kidd Creek would flood over Cazadero Highway and keep people from getting what they needed.

Fire officials and emergency management officials held a series of meetings Tuesday to plan for the storm and make arrangements to staff extra personnel and deploy people and equipment as needed to respond.

Monte Rio Fire already has had five houses and three cars damaged by trees in recent days and is prepared to patrolling the roads to keep them open, Baxman said.

The crews recently did some water rescue training. The department’s jet ski ready as well as a backhoe will be at the station Wednesday for deployment.

“We’ve got all the equipment up and running and all the saws are sharp. We’ve got plenty of fuel,” Baxman said.

In Santa Rosa, two swift water rescue boats are stationed at the ready, and a second battalion chief will be on duty, so there’s one for each side of the city, Lowenthal said.

The Sonoma County Fire District also is centralizing operations in case flooding or road closures impact its Forestville or Guerneville stations.

County fire chiefs also are coordinating operations between agencies, Foreman said.

Schools are only required to let the county education office know if they are closing, not if they are going to end classes early, said Wittmershaus, the agency spokesman, and he had not been notified of any schools that are closing.

Petaluma City Schools and most of its feeder districts are off all week or longer. Schools in the Roseland School District are also still closed for winter break. Geyserville Elementary School is off through Wednesday as well, Wittmershaus pointed out.

Staff Writer Kathleen Coates contributed reporting. You can reach Staff Writer Mary Callahan (she/her) at 707-521-5249 or mary.callahan@pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Writer Madison Smalstig at madison.smalstig@pressdemocrat.com.