Sonoma County could near turnout record with tens of thousands of ballots still uncounted

Tens of thousands of ballots mailed in by Sonoma County voters or dropped off in recent days remain to be counted, potentially driving turnout in Tuesday’s election to the record set in 2008, the county’s top election official said.

Ballots postmarked by Election Day are expected as late as Friday, and all told, 70,000 to 80,000 ballots could be added to the 200,584 ballots counted as of early Wednesday, said Deva Proto, the county’s registrar of voters.

She indicated it would take at least a couple of days to provide updated election results.

Just over 300,000 Sonoma County residents were registered to vote in the 2020 general election, galvanized by the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. More than 90% of those residents may have cast ballots, Proto estimated.

“I think it’s going to be very close to the high-water mark,” Proto said in an interview Wednesday morning. She added later in an email to expect updates by the end of the week: “We’ll know more in the next day or so.”

At the top end of her projection — about 280,000 votes cast — turnout would be 93%, roughly equaling the 2008 mark, when then-Sen. Barack Obama defeated Sen. John McCain for the White House.

Among the roughly 240,000 ballots processed by Wednesday morning, turnout among Democrats was at 83%, with at least 141,000 of Sonoma County’s roughly 169,000 registered Democrats casting votes, according to Proto’s preliminary tally.

About 43,000 local Republican voters cast ballots, as well as 46,000 residents who indicated no political preference and thousands more from voters registered with minor parties.

Proto and her team have until Dec. 1 to certify the vote, but in the interim, it’s unclear how long it will take to count the remaining ballots or when election officials will update results — that depends on the volume of ballots yet to be counted and those remaining to be received, Proto said.

As of Wednesday morning, Proto said more than 240,000 ballots had been received and processed, with roughly 40,000 of those yet to be counted. Roughly 30,000 to 40,000 ballots are expected to arrive over the next few days, Proto estimated.

It’s also unclear where in Sonoma County the outstanding ballots are coming from, Proto said. That geographic information, which could shed light on the future of key local races, won’t be known until ballots are processed, she said.

“They could be from anywhere,” Proto said.

Proto also said she was not aware of any major problems with the election. A few “very minor things” occurred, she said, including some minor electioneering incidents that were quickly resolved.

“I’m really happy with how everything turned out,” she said.

Results in several races still hang in the balance. City council races in Santa Rosa, Petaluma and Sebastopol remain too close to call, as do numerous school district races across the county. The proposed countywide sales tax for mental health and homeless services, Measure O, was narrowly above the two-thirds majority it needs to pass, with about 69% of voters in support.

Veteran political consultant Rob Muelrath said, based on early voting trends, he expects initial results to hold, particularly for the eight tax measures currently leading.

“I think all the way around, there’s a consistent trend that tells me that things are not going to change,” said Muelrath, who worked on campaigns for several local ballot measures and candidates. “We knew the Dems were going to come out hard. That’s why we all thought this is the best time to put a tax measure on the ballot.”

Two Santa Rosa council races, in Districts 1 and 7, appeared too close to call as of Wednesday.

In District 1, which includes Roseland and other parts of south Santa Rosa, businessman Eddie Alvarez led electrical engineer Jorge Inocencio by about 45% to 30% of the vote as of mid-Wednesday, when 4,965 of 9,399 registered voters in the district had cast ballots, according to Sonoma County data.

Inocencio has not conceded and has said he is waiting for more ballots to be counted. Alvarez said Wednesday that he was not ready to claim victory.

“It could change at any given moment,” Alvarez said. “I’m simply celebrating that Roseland has a new voice and South Park has a new voice.”

Based on early returns, turnout in District 1 stood at 53%, but given that it was nearly 77% in the 2016 general election, and the higher overall rates of voter participation this year, it’s likely that more than 2,000 ballots remain uncounted in in the district.

Still, Alvarez looks to be in “really good shape there, and I don’t know that that’s been changing at all,” said Brian Sobel, a Petaluma-based political analyst. Though Alvarez doesn’t have an outright majority, his double-digit percentage point advantage amounts to “a pretty commanding lead,” Sobel said.

And in District 7, which includes parts of west and southwest Santa Rosa, marriage and family therapist Natalie Rogers was narrowly leading Eric Christensen, who owns a visual special effects company. Rogers had about 43% of the vote as of mid-Wednesday, leading Christensen, who had about 40%, by fewer than 300 votes with about 57% of the roughly 14,750 registered voters in the district casting ballots.

District 7’s turnout in November 2016 was about 86%, and matching that rate in 2020 would mean that more than 4,000 ballots remain to be counted in the the race. A third candidate, attorney Daniela Pavone, has garnered about 17% of the vote.

There appear to be a few thousand votes left to be counted in District 7, and while it’s hardly impossible to overcome a 300-vote deficit, as Sobel noted, “you want to be up 300, not down 300.”

Staff Writer Tyler Silvy contributed reporting. You can reach Staff Writer Will Schmitt at 707-521-5207 or will.schmitt@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @wsreports.