Despite case rates dropping to pre-delta surge, Sonoma County reports 3 new COVID-19 deaths

Remember spring of last year? That was when Sonoma County successfully emerged from a deadly winter surge, and COVID-19 case rates were so low that many thought the pandemic was over.

Now, another spring reprieve from the pandemic has resulted in virus transmission rates not seen since before the deadly delta- or omicron-fueled surges. For the week ending March 8, there were an average of 7.4 new daily cases per 100,000 residents, or an average of just under 37 new coronavirus infections a day.

This time last year, the case rate was 8.9 new daily cases per 100,000 people. Virus transmission reached as low as 2.4 cases per 100,000 in the third week of April 2021.

Case rates have steadily declined since the winter omicron surge, boosting hopes that the pandemic is entering a new endemic stage, meaning it will be considered a regularly occurring disease like the flu. This week marks the first week that school children were not required to wear masks indoors, though they are still strongly encouraged to do so.

Nearly a month ago, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a plan for entering into the endemic stage of the pandemic, one that emphasizes prevention and quick reaction to outbreaks over mandated masking and business shutdowns.

On Tuesday, state lawmakers on the Senate Committee on Governmental Organization rejected a GOP-led proposal to end the statewide COVID-19 state of emergency. The measure was opposed by groups representing cities, counties and labor unions, who said the state should still exercise caution.

Declining COVID-19 case rates come as warmer spring weather returns to the North Coast. They also come in spite of the end of state and local indoor masking rules several weeks ago.

“That makes me feel like we’re on the right path,” Dr. Sundari Mase, the county’s health officer, said of declining virus transmission. “I’m cautiously optimist. It’s good to see, even with masking being optional.”

Mase pointed out that a sub-variant of omicron, BA.2, is causing case rates to increase in the United Kingdom, where there are almost no pandemic restrictions at all. Local health officials said last week that at least five cases of BA.2 have been detected in Sonoma County, though the actual count is likely more than that, since not all COVID-19 specimens are genotyped.

Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, said BA.2 variant, also known as “stealth omicron,” is well on its way to becoming the dominant strain in the United States. BA.2’s share of all virus infections is doubling every week and should be more than 50% of all COVID-19 infections in the next week or two, he said.

BA.2 is thought to be 30% more infectious than omicron, Swartzberg added. But he said it doesn’t appear to make people more ill than omicron, nor does it appear to evade people’s immunity any more than omicron.

Swartzberg said BA.2 is currently leading to surges in places like Hong Kong, and he fears that something similar could happen in the United States as people let their guard down and pretend the pandemic is over. He said he doubts the Bay Area will see anything like last year’s surges.

“We have a lot of things going for us,” he said. “I don’t want to lead people to believe we’re in for another horrible surge.”

Swartzberg said he doubts case rates will drop as low as they were before last summer’s surge, a period he described as the “halcyon days” of the pandemic.

Mase said she hopes the county’s strong vaccination rates will lead to a continued decline in pandemic cases and, consequently, hospitalizations and deaths.

In the past week, county health officials have reported four coronavirus-related deaths, bringing the total to 481. The deaths include an unvaccinated man between 75 and 85 who died Feb. 26 after being hospitalized.

On Monday, officials reported three people had died after contracting the virus — an unvaccinated woman between 90 and 100 who died Feb. 24; an unvaccinated woman between 80 and 90 who died March 3; and a fully vaccinated woman between 70 and 80 who died March 2. All three women had underlying health issues and had been hospitalized.

As of Tuesday, there were 13 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Sonoma County, significantly fewer than the 116 hospital patients who had tested positive for the virus on Jan. 21. Four of the 13 hospital patients were in intensive care, compared to 19 ICU patients on Jan. 25.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.