Sonoma County lags behind other Bay Area counties in meeting state coronavirus metrics to reopen

Sonoma County, one of the last two Bay Area counties stuck in the most restrictive tier of California’s coronavirus reopening plan, could meet state benchmarks as soon as next week that would allow it to resume a wider range of public activities by mid October, the county’s public health officer said Wednesday.

The outcome will hinge upon continued improvement in two key metrics that show the spread of the virus began slowing in Sonoma County in late August and has stabilized since early September. If the trend continues — and does not reverse itself in the next two weeks — the county will be positioned to move out of the state’s “purple” tier that strictly limits the type and scope of indoor activities, said Dr. Sundari Mase, the county’s public health officer.

Sonoma and Contra Costa counties are the only two Bay Area counties left in the purple tier, subject to the tightest limits on indoor activities under the color-coded, four-tier state system used to classify the intensity of the pandemic. Over the last month, seven other Bay Area counties moved up to the next level, the “red” tier, allowing restaurants, fitness centers, movie theaters and dance studios to welcome customers back indoors.

The improvement enabled many other businesses and public places in those counties to expand indoor operations to 50% of capacity, including clothing shops, shoe stores, florists, jewelers and libraries. In Sonoma County, they are currently allowed to serve customers indoors, but only at 25% of capacity.

Mase said Wednesday the county is getting very close to meeting the two benchmarks required to advance to the red tier, and that may happen on Tuesday, when the state does its weekly county assessments.

During a press briefing Wednesday afternoon, Mase pointed to a number of reasons why the county has lagged behind other Bay Area counties since the beginning of the pandemic. She said that many of the nine counties in the Bay Area were hit by a rise in cases “a good month before us” and are consequently recovering sooner than Sonoma County.

“So, we are probably falling behind,” she said. “In other words, we’re seeing our decrease in cases maybe a couple of weeks behind them, as well.”

But Mase also pointed out that Sonoma County is less like other urbanized counties in the Bay Area and shares more in common with Monterey County, which also remains in the purple tier. Both counties are home to tourism, agriculture and other industries, with large bases of agricultural workers who live in the county.

“Essential workers in Sonoma County also live and work within our borders,” Mase said.

The county’s robust testing and contact tracing, particularly in local Latino communities and in senior care facilities, has resulted in finding more cases, Mase said.

“That’s good because we’re finding all of our cases and getting them isolated,” she said. “It also increases our numbers.”

Announced almost four weeks ago, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s reopening plan established four color-coded levels of COVID-19 restrictions based on the degree of virus spread in a county. The purple tier, the most restrictive, indicates “widespread“ transmission of the virus; red means “substantial;“ orange represents ”moderate” and yellow indicates “minimal.“

The state reassesses counties every Tuesday based on their case rate, the average daily cases per 100,000 residents and their positivity rate, the share of all COVID-19 tests that result positive.

Nineteen counties across the state are at the red tier and 25, including Sonoma County, remain in the purple tier.

To get to the red tier, Sonoma County must have seven or fewer new cases each day per 100,000 residents — or roughly 35 cases a day — and a positivity rate of less than 8%. The county currently has 8.3 new cases daily per capita and a positivity rate of 4.6%, but counties must meet both benchmarks to advance.

Mase said that with the recent decline in local cases, it’s possible Sonoma County could meet the red tier requirements by next Tuesday. After that, it must continue to meet those requirements for two consecutive weeks before it advances.

Schools, however, would still be prohibited from reopening classrooms without a waiver from the county public health department unless the county remained in the red tier for an additional two weeks — or late October, at the earliest.

Contra Costa County, the other Bay Area county still in the purple zone, met the red tier requirements on Tuesday, starting the two-week countdown before it can advance. Alameda, San Mateo and Solano counties left the purple zone Tuesday, joining Napa, Marin, San Francisco and Santa Clara counties.

Karl Fischer, a spokesman for Contra Costa Health Services, said the county had been trending down in its COVID-19 metrics since early July and aligned its local health order with the state's reopening plan.

“We don't have additional restrictions on top of what the state allows right now,” he said.

Sonoma County took that step on Wednesday, issuing a new health order eliminating county restrictions that went beyond state public health mandates. As a result, nail salons can resume indoor service on Thursday morning in Sonoma County, aligning the county with state guidelines issued Tuesday by Newsom.

The new local health order does not change any requirements for businesses and individuals aimed at reducing the spread of the virus.

Mase said the only other changes resulting from the new order are: increasing the limit in the size of child care groups from 12 to 16 and allowing in-person lectures and student gatherings at higher educational institutions when the county enters the red tier.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.