Sonoma County voters casting ballots early in record numbers

Nearly half of registered voters in Sonoma County already have cast ballots, marking a historic high in early voter turnout and placing new emphasis on the election’s final days.

But the money being funneled into touting local ballot measures hasn’t kept pace, a shift from prior elections that featured robust turnout.

Experts say the pandemic and the pull of a presidential election deserve most of the credit for the unprecedented early turnout, which hit 45% as of Sunday, 10 days before Election Day, and easily topping the 27% turnout at the same point in 2008.

“It’s more than a triple whammy — you have a pandemic, you have a recession, you have protests and you have the top of the ticket. It’s consequential,” said David McCuan, a Sonoma State University political scientist.

McCuan said his modeling shows turnout surpassing 2008 numbers, but falling short of the all-time high-water mark — 65.5% set 100 years earlier, in 1908.

Sonoma County Clerk and Recorder Deva Proto said the high rate of early returns is more than just a point of interest.

“It means that the results that are posted on Election Night will be a lot more statistically significant in terms of where the races are — who’s ahead,” Proto said, adding that voters have returned ballots through the mail and at designated drop boxes in nearly equal numbers.

It also means, elections experts say, that campaign spending in the final week, which has amounted to just $80,000 for countywide ballot measures, will be focused on fewer votes and will take on far greater importance.

“Those who could not afford it had to be more strategic in their buys, to arrive when there was a little less competition and a little closer to when voters actually decided, around two to three weeks out,” said Dan Mullen, a local political consultant.

For Mullen, who is helping lead a campaign to pass Measure P, which would expand oversight of the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office, the biggest effect from the pandemic was a lack of face-to-face contact with voters, a tactic that was largely replaced this year with written materials, as well as text messaging and phone calls.

Groups pushing ballot measures are also working with fewer dollars, something McCuan blames more on a dearth of contentious races between candidates for top positions.

To date, less than $80,000 has been spent between three countywide ballot measures, but the Sonoma County Farm Bureau and others have combined to spend $75,000 on a campaign against taxes at all levels. Still, the spending to date is dwarfed by past races and ballot measures, which have totaled millions of dollars.

McCuan said it marked an interesting dichotomy in the final stretch to Election Day: “You have voters up, but not the dollars.”

“Nationally, we have had quite a bit of money (spent); it will be record-setting, especially for television advertising,” McCuan said. “If you drill down locally, there aren’t any hot (candidate) races.”

McCuan said he expects people on both sides on lesser-known ballot measures to make their cases to remaining voters in the coming days.

In California, ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day, and can be received up to 17 days after Election Day, according to the Sonoma County Clerk and Recorder’s Office.

Voters also can return ballots at one of 20 designated ballot drop boxes in the county, as well as visit one of 30 in-person voting locations open 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, and 1 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.

For those tired of being on the receiving end of campaign calls, or mail, there’s a simple solution: Turn in your ballot. Campaigns know when voters have submitted their ballots, and they’ll stop wasting money seeking those votes.

“These voters who still have ballots are just asking campaigns to keep advertising to them,” Mullen said.

You can reach Staff Writer Tyler Silvy at 707-526-8667 or tyler.silvy@pressdemocrat.com.