Summer COVID-19 surge taxing for Sonoma County hospitals

Hospitalizations in Sonoma County related to the coronavirus nearly doubled in the past month, straining local hospitals as the powerful delta variant continues spreading mainly among those who have yet to be vaccinated.

But there are hopeful signs the summer surge of COVID-19 infections and subsequent hospitalizations is starting to peak.

If that proves to be the case in the coming days and weeks, it would be a welcome relief among local hospital workers who have had a taxing summer.

The number of people in hospitals across the county stopped increasing since Aug. 15, when 84 coronavirus patients were getting treatment. As of Tuesday, there were 78 people hospitalized here suffering from COVID-19 complications.

What’s more, state computer modeling predicted the number of pandemic hospitalizations will be nearly cut in half by Aug. 24. That same computer projection shows that the transmission rate of the pandemic disease in Sonoma County is likely decreasing.

“I think we are seeing this surge cresting now, and after another week or so we’ll start to see a steady decline,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health.

However, Swartzberg said, that could change, particularly with the reopening of schools statewide. His best assessment though is the summer virus surge will keep receding.

To be sure, the number of people with COVID-19 in local hospitals is still high, though less than the patient counts during the deadly winter surge, which crested in early January at more than 100 patients on an average day.

Certain medical experts predict hospitalizations, which lag virus circulation by about four weeks, will continue to increase in the near term.

What’s clear is the local death toll from the virus, which follows a rise in hospitalizations, continues to mount. Fatalities this month are on pace to match or exceed the 16 in July, following only four in June and a single death in May.

On Wednesday, county public health officials reported two more pandemic-related deaths, boosting August fatalities to 14 and the overall total since March 2020 to 349. Both were men between 65 and 75 hospitalized with underlying health conditions. One died Aug. 6 and the other on Aug. 16. One was unvaccinated and the other man had been inoculated.

Also, Mendocino County public health officials Wednesday said a 52-year-old Willits man who was not vaccinated died recently of COVID-19. Officials said 60 people in that county have died since the pandemic started.

Dr. Sundari Mase, the county’s health officer, said 80% of people hospitalized locally with COVID-19, including those in intensive care, are not vaccinated.

Virus patients who are inoculated usually have severe underlying health issues or are older, Mase said, while there is an increasing number of younger people hospitalized.

Tarek Salaway, senior vice president and area manager of the Kaiser Permanente’s Marin and Sonoma county region, said the summer surge here mirrors what’s occurring across the country with swelling hospitalizations.

“Kaiser Permanente hospitals are already caring for two-thirds as many patients right now as we treated at the peak of the surge last winter,” he said via email. “Based on each of the prior surges, we expect hospitalizations will continue to increase over the next three weeks.”

Salaway said more than 85% of the patients in Kaiser’s Northern California hospitals, including those in intensive care, are not inoculated against the virus. Increasing vaccination rates, he said, likely would reduce the need for pandemic-related hospital care, relieving part of the burden local hospitals are experiencing.

“Widespread vaccination is our best hope of stopping this virus and keeping our communities safe,” Salaway said. “We urge everyone to help end the pandemic by getting the safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine.”

Chad Krilich, chief medical officer at Providence St. Joseph Health, which runs Santa Rosa Memorial, Petaluma Valley and Healdsburg hospitals, said average monthly coronavirus patient counts have been increasing since spring.

Memorial Hospital saw an average of 27 COVID-19 patients a day in August, 15 in July and six in June. Meanwhile, the average at Petaluma Valley was eight, six and two patients during those months. But he said in the past seven days, the average number of virus patients at all area Providence St. Joseph hospitals has decreased by about 5%.

“It may be that this seven-day moving average is a leading indicator that is foreshadowing potential for good news,” Krilich said. “Or it just may be a brief moment of relief and then we're going to see more cases.”

Despite the spike in coronavirus patients, he said, Providence St. Joseph hospitals have not reduced the number of certain surgeries. Earlier this week, he said, 11% of those admitted to the company’s hospitals have COVID-19, while 32% of patients in intensive care are infected by the virus.

“When it's greater than 40% for the hospital overall and greater than 50% for the ICU overall, that’s where it triggers us looking at being more selective about the surgeries that we do,” Krilich said.

This week, Kaiser again put up medical tents outside at its Santa Rosa campus on Bicentennial Way as a precaution, in case the summer virus surge keeps going and doesn’t wane.

Salaway, the Kaiser executive, said medical staff continue to care for Kaiser members and other patients every day, even as what he called a “preventable surge” has worsened through the summer.

He said while pandemic staffing remains a challenge, hundreds of nurses and other staff have been hired in recent months to help alleviate the burden.

Jeannie Gerbich, a Kaiser ultrasound technician, said although the number of COVID-19 patients at the hospital is not quite as high as it was during the winter, the volume is heavy and wears down health care workers.

“We're all feeling a surge of fatigue again and a little anxiety as the numbers grow,” said Gerbich, member of the local SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West union. “We have a lot of patients coming through the (emergency department) right now ... with COVID.”

She said that in previous pandemic surges most patients were advanced in age and “we’re seeing a little in the 40s now, a lot of people that are a little bit younger.”

Kaiser’s health care workers have also again started to wear a lot of personal protective equipment when caring for patients.

“Now we just presume that every single patient that comes into the hospital for any generic exam, outpatient, inpatient, emergency department — you have COVID,” Gerbich said.

“That is how we expect our day to go,” she said. “We're not waiting for test results; we're not waiting to see what happens next, for the next shoe to drop. Every person that we deal with is anticipated in our mind to have COVID at this point.”

Mase, Sonoma County’s health officer, said local hospitals and medical teams are not only strained from caring for coronavirus patients, but also from treating “deferred care” patients. These are people who delayed getting treatment last year during the public health lockdown.

“Our hospitals are definitely stressed,” she said. “We're not to the point where we're saying they're overwhelmed but they're definitely stressed, and we're working with them, talking weekly to see how things are going.”

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.