Sonoma County’s population grew by a meager 1% between 2010 and 2020

Sonoma County’s overall population grew by a mere 1% in the past decade, from 483,878 to 488,863 residents, according to 2020 census data released Thursday morning.

A difference of only 4,985 people, the county’s population change represents the slowest growth in decades and is dwarfed by the 5.5% growth it experienced between 2000 and 2010, when the county added more than 25,000 residents. In the decade of the 1990s, the county grew by more than 70,000.

Across the nine Bay Area counties, Sonoma County saw the slowest growth in the region, followed by Napa County with a 1.1% growth.

Although anemic growth in Sonoma County could relieve some of the housing pressures, it isn’t necessarily good for business, said Ethan Brown, director of business development & innovation at the Sonoma County Economic Development Board.

“In a county where we are struggling to create enough housing, flat population growth isn't necessarily a bad thing,” Brown said. “But also … most sectors are struggling for workforce as well, and to have population growth stagnate or contract is not a good thing for the economy overall.”

The data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday is the first detailed look at how the demographics of the nation, states, counties, cities and neighborhoods have changed in the past 10 years.

The data, which will be used by state legislatures and local governments to redraw political districts for the next decade, include local level 2020 census results on population change, race, ethnicity, voting age population and housing occupancy status.

But what the 2020 Census numbers do not show is the magnitude of population loss in Sonoma County since 2017, the year of the North Bay firestorm.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual estimates, Sonoma County’s population peaked in 2017 at 504,217 residents. The official 2020 head count reflected a 3% decline since then.

Local economists, politicians and demographers attribute the decline not only to repeated wildfires, but also to the increasing cost of housing, the pandemic, drought and other quality of life issues.

Linda Lou Silvashy, 74, of Rohnert Park is among those local residents who have decided to leave. Silvashy, a widow, recently sold her Emily Avenue home and will be moving in with her daughter in Colorado on Aug. 20.

Silvashy said she’s fed up with California, its politics and the high cost of living. “I don't want to stay here, I can't afford to stay here, not on my Social Security,” she said. “If you're on a limited income, you cannot live here.”

Silvashy is moving to a small town called Parker, just southeast of Denver. One of the interesting national findings in last year’s census was that the 10 fastest growing cities were essentially suburbs of nearby larger cities.

Nationally, population growth slowed in the past decade, with only 1930s having less growth. In addition, declines were widespread, with most counties losing population between 2010 and 2020.

Smaller counties nationally tended to lose population while more populous counties only grew bigger. Most growth took place in metro areas, with all 10 of the country’s most populous cities growing in the past 10 years.

The census showed that Americans continued to move to the South and West, while population in the Midwest and Northeast declined.

In addition to the population statistics, the census data show the face of America is changing as well.

Between 2010 and 2020, the nation’s white population fell from 63.7% to 57.8%, largely driven by declining birthrates among white women compared with Hispanic and Asian women.

Sonoma County’s white population decreased by 10.7% over the past 10 years, dropping from 320,027 people in 2010 to 285,792 in 2020. In turn, the Latino population grew 17.4%, from 120,430 residents in 2010 to 141,438 last year, the U.S. census data released Thursday shows.

Latinos now make up nearly 29% of all Sonoma County residents, where a decade ago their share was just under 25%. White residents comprise of just under 59% of the total population, whereas 10 years ago they made up 66%.

Santa Rosa, which annexed parts of the Roseland community in 2017, grew by 6.1% in the past 10 years, according to the census data, with a total of 178,127 residents last year. The city grew by 13.7% between the start of the new millennium and 2010.

Rohnert Park saw the county’s largest percentage growth. The 2020 U.S. Census counted nearly 44,390 people in Rohnert Park, representing a 8.3% increase from 2010, when about 40,971 people were counted. By comparison, Rohnert Park saw its population shrink by 3% between 2000 and 2010.

Petaluma’s population grew 3.2%, from 57,941 to 59,776 residents.

Windsor was the only city in Sonoma County to see its population shrink in 2020 compared to 2010. A total of 26,344 people were counted in last year’s census, a decline of 1.7% from 2010. Between 2000 and 2010 the town grew by nearly 18%, adding 4,057 residents.

The new census data left Windsor Mayor Salmon scratching his head for an explanation. There are no obvious signs of population decline, such as empty homes, reduced highway congestion and water use, There was also not a significant loss of homes to wildfires.

“It’s something that’s hard to visualize,” Salmon said, adding that more time will be needed to evaluate the data and determine how it will impact housing allotment projections.

“One thing we’ll have to look at is are there less families with children,” he said. “That might be some of it, where because the demographics may be changing the schools are having somewhat less enrollment.”

David McCuan, chair of the political science department at Sonoma State University, said he’s not surprised by the county’s minuscule growth, a trend he terms as a “demographic winter.”

“It reflects the difficulty in recovery, post fires. It reflects changes in the work space, how we work, and the ability to afford living here,” said McCuan. “And it also reflects a demographic shift of the population that often sees Sonoma County or Napa County as a weekend playground, and not necessarily a place where you can grow a family, grow a career and grow your roots.”

One of the key ways the census data will be used will be for redistricting. With the release of the census data, the work of redrawing political lines can now begin.

Pedro Toledo, a local health care executive who serves on the state Citizens Redistricting Commission, said the data released Thursday will need to be reformatted and that those in state prison and detention centers will need to be reallocated to their last known address, as required by state law.

All that will take about a month before the redistricting commission can begin its work redrawing congressional and state legislative maps, he said. The deadline for completion of that work, which is already months behind schedule because of Census Bureau’s delays, is Jan. 2021.

Voting maps must be redrawn for the state’s Congressional, State Senate, State Assembly and State Board of Equalization districts.

In April, the U.S. Census Bureau released state population totals for congressional apportionment. That data showed that while California’s population had grown, it did so at a slower rate than other states, and as a result the state lost a congressional seat.

“That means that every U.S. House of Representatives district in California will need to expand in population and every member will need to represent more people,” Toledo said, adding that the commission has begun gathering public input from stakeholders in every county to help guide their work.

Sonoma County Supervisor James Gore, who is also president of the California State of Association of Counties, said the new census data can shed light on how natural disasters and the rising cost of living have affected local population changes. Gore said one of the things he’s interested in is figuring out how many homes are currently being used as second homes or vacation rentals.

“How has that cost of living pushed demographic shifts?” he asked. “We know that in Sonoma County, the average median income is around $70,000 for a family of four and it drops to $60,000 for a family of four that are Latino. Those numbers show that the vast majority of our population will never be able to afford to own a home in Sonoma County.”

Some of the 2020 Census redistricting data is available to the public on its QuickFacts website.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza and at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com and Staff Writer Nashelly Chavez at 707-521-5203 or nashelly.chavez@pressdemocrat.com.