Will everyone in California eventually get coronavirus?
With tens of thousands of new coronavirus cases being reported in California each week, it might seem inevitable that everyone will get infected at some point.
But that's not necessarily the case, officials and experts say. Even with the near-constant drumbeat of transmission this spring and summer, millions of Californians have still been able to avoid catching the virus.
For some, that might be a matter of circumstance — their work or living situations allow them to rarely venture into crowded settings. Others may still be avoiding nonessential activities to lessen their exposure risk.
Many might chalk it up to luck.
"The storyline is, 'Everybody's gotten it.' But the reality is a lot of people haven't," said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious-disease expert.
While there's no silver bullet, residents can still take reasonable precautions to lessen their chance of getting infected.
"Everyone needs to be vigilant to avoid exposure and prevent severe disease," especially during periods of high community transmission, said Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, an epidemiologist and infectious-disease expert with UCLA's Fielding School of Public Health.
Vaccines
Getting vaccinated and boosted remains one of the best ways to stave off infection — and especially to avoid the most serious health impacts of COVID-19, officials and experts say.
The vaccines "are, in fact, doing exactly what we need them to do: They're preventing severe illness and death," Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said.
"I want folks to feel confident that their actions are making a difference," she said Tuesday during a presentation to the county Board of Supervisors. "They protect our entire community from the worst impacts of the pandemic."
According to the latest state data, unvaccinated Californians were five times more likely to get COVID-19 than their vaccinated and boosted counterparts. They also were eight times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, as well as to die from the disease.
"Some of the new things that are keeping transmissions at bay potentially are the fact that kids now under 5 are getting vaccinated, kids 5 and over can get a booster, there's more Paxlovid going around. All of that might keep community viral load lower than it would have been," Chin-Hong said.
But although most Californians have already completed their primary vaccine series, demand for boosters has been lower. Vaccination rates for children ages 5 to 11 have also lagged well behind other age groups, and the youngest children only just became eligible for the shots.
The fact that vaccine protection wanes over time underscores the importance of staying up to date on the shots, experts say.
According to research published this month in the New England Journal of Medicine, two shots of COVID-19 vaccine without an additional booster offer essentially no lasting protection against infection with Omicron. That highly transmissible strain, as well as its family of subvariants, is responsible for essentially all new coronavirus infections at this point.
At the same time, any immunity appears to offer significant and lasting protection against serious illness, hospitalization and death, researchers found. And if you haven't had either the virus or the vaccine, doctors urged, it's better to get the jab.
"The fact that I and a fair number of people who continue to be careful and are fully vaccinated and boosted remain COVID-free tells me that it's possible we will continue to be that way, so I don't buy the inevitability argument," said Dr. Robert Wachter, chair of UC San Francisco's Department of Medicine. "On the other hand, there are plenty of people who I know who have been just as careful as I have and have gotten it in the past few months, so I think there's some randomness to this."
Masks
Although masks are no longer required in most indoor public settings, health officials still encourage their use, saying they can literally provide an extra layer of protection.
"Masking when in crowded indoor settings and being vaccinated and boosted are still the best protections. Also, if one becomes infected and symptomatic, medicines such as Paxlovid will significantly reduce the severity of the disease, especially for persons at higher risk," Kim-Farley said.
The California Department of Public Health recommends people use medical-grade face coverings, such as surgical, N95, KN95 or KF94 masks. Wearing an old, loose, cloth mask alone is less effective, but placing one on top of a surgical mask can be more effective than a surgical mask alone as it tightens the fit.
Though the magnitude of this latest coronavirus wave sparked concerns that governments would return to mask mandates, that has not been the case.
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