PD Editorial: Time is running out to prevent devastating climate change

Humanity is almost out of time to prevent the worst global warming outcomes. California is doing more than most to reduce carbon emissions, but it’s not enough.

The latest warning comes from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which released a new report on the state of climate change this week. The report brings together all of the current research on climate change and presents a comprehensive analysis about where things are headed. This is the sixth such report, and the prognosis grows more dire with each.

There’s no rational denying that the world is warming and human activity is to blame. (There’s been plenty of irrational denying it.) The average global temperature is up 1.1 degree Celsius (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit) over preindustrial levels in the second half of the 19th century. Carbon emissions, mostly from burning fossil fuels, are to blame.

Two degrees Fahrenheit might not sound like much, but in a complex, chaotic climate system, small perturbations cause widespread local change. Species die and weather grows more extreme. Californians know this well. If we’re not in a heat wave and drought, we’re slammed by atmospheric rivers and floods.

It’s not hopeless. Climate experts and international consensus set 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels as an attainable goal to limit the worst outcomes. That’s still attainable, according to the report, if industrialized nations cut their greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and stop them altogether by the early 2050s. Do that, and there’s a 50-50 chance warming will stabilize. Then humanity can get to work removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and reversing climate change.

But if the world doesn’t make those rapid reductions, temperatures are on pace to hit 2.0 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures and more. That’s when things get really bad. Think famine, mass migration, extreme drought, sea-level rise, flooding and so on.

Unfortunately for the future, humanity appears unwilling to do what is necessary. The threat of climate change has been known for decades, but the world has not decreased its fossil-fuel emissions. Instead, emissions were on pace to hit record highs last year. At 2022 emissions levels, the world will surpass the 1.5 degree Celsius target within a decade and 2 degrees Celsius within 30 years.

Despite the clear danger, leaders cling to fossil fuels. The Biden administration talks a big about reducing emissions, but this month it approved new oil drilling in Alaska. California also continues to approve new oil and gas wells.

At least California is trying on other fronts. The state wants to cut greenhouse gas emissions 85% by 2045 and accelerate the deployment of clean energy sources. It also plans to require that all new vehicles sold starting in 2035 be zero-emission.

Those are laudable goals, but even they aren’t enough fast enough.

That doesn’t mean Californians should give up. Aggressive targets are great, but the state also must meet them. California can serve as an exemplar for other states and nations. If we succeed at reducing emissions dramatically and transitioning to a green future, others will follow.

If only they’d follow faster. Time is running out.

You can send letters to the editor to letters@pressdemocrat.com.