Inside the 49ers: Buy into Trent Williams, then retreat for free agency bargains

Trent Williams sure makes a compelling sales pitch.

Williams' worth is not just as a Pro Bowl left tackle but an ideal "offensive weapon" for the 49ers, to borrow a title that justified fullback Kyle Juszczyk's 2017 mega-deal.

"With me having the mixture of size, speed and athleticism, it gets Kyle (Shanahan) to the point he can literally game plan around me in that system," Williams said on Tuesday night's Cris Collinsworth Podcast with Richard Sherman.

Yes, Williams is kind of a big deal, and a contract reflecting that will be signed in the coming days. Sherman predicted Williams will re-sign on a five- or six-year deal.

"Y'all are barking up the right tree," Williams responded.

To him, the 49ers stand out among the NFL forest because of his unique skill for their scheme, plus their championship capabilities (if healthier than 2020) and an endearing relationship with Shanahan and offensive line coach Chris Foerster.

The 49ers should buy in, then retreat in free agency and wait out veterans inclined to sign bargain deals for a chance at a bigger 2022 payday — and an elusive Super Bowl.

Williams isn't alone when he marvels at Shanahan masterminding ways to turn almost any player into a weapon on an assigned play. Williams dubbed himself an "anomaly" that benefits Shanahan's approach, adding: "Kyle's system kind of puts me on display a little bit more than the other systems."

Same goes for all 49ers. Juszczyk can still be an "offensive weapon" if he re-signs. May as well share that title with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Raheem Mostert and, if healthy, Jimmy Garoppolo.

If a "defensive weapon" lurks in free agency, spend the money on a pass rusher rather than a cornerback, and settle in for great theater with Nick Bosa's comeback and Fred Warner's All-Pro encore.

ANTI-TRENT TAKE

Not everyone agrees that Williams should be paid so handsomely as $20 million a year, particularly by the 49ers.

Former NFL lineman Ross Tucker's contrarian viewpoint: Williams wasn't flawless last season, and Shanahan's motion-oriented offense doesn't rely on a left tackle to fully protect a quarterback.

"The offense, with the outside zone and bootlegs and play action, it's not like you're asking the left tackle to do 40 drop-back, 1-on-1 pass protection reps a game," Tucker said on the SB Nation NFL Show podcast. "Also, he had some bad moments last year. He was a big reason they lost that Eagles game."

All due respect to Tucker, but if anyone is eating into the York family fortune this next week, it should be Williams.

CHECKBOOK BALANCING

The 49ers have $24 million in salary cap space based on Wednesday's announced ceiling of $182.5 million. They certainly don't need to double that room by axing Garoppolo's contract.

Nor must they make urgent moves, though they'll likely part with oft-injured veterans Dee Ford and Weston Richburg, for another $10 million in cap room.

As for in-house extensions, linebacker Fred Warner's likely won't come until training camp (or in 2022 when the salary cap blooms), so instead expect tenders or multi-year deals with offensive lineman Daniel Brunskill (exclusive rights free agent) and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley (restricted free agent).

It'll cost $10.9 million for right tackle Mike McGlinchey's 2022 fifth-year option, according to numbers released Wednesday. The 49ers have said they'll activate it, and the deadline to do so (or change their mind) is May 3.

COMPENSATORY PICKS

Two compensatory draft picks came the 49ers' way Thursday, all of which can help fuel their habit of draft-day trades. That 10-pick stockpile doesn't have enough early-round bite to further entice the Houston Texans to deal Deshaun Watson.

The NFL's confusing compensatory process sent the 49ers third- and fifth-round picks. The third-rounder (No. 102) came via the league's beefed-up diversity hiring incentive, once defensive coordinator Robert Saleh was hired as the New York Jets coach. The 49ers also are due third-round compensatory picks in 2022 and '23 because of the Saleh exit as well as Washington's hiring of general manager Martin Mayhew, a former 49ers personnel executive.

The 49ers' top picks are at No. 12 in the first round and No. 43 in the second, then the third-round compensatory pick. Their fifth-round compensatory pick (No. 180) is from 2020 free agency losses (Emmanuel Sanders, Levine Toilolo) vs. gains (Tom Compton).

SANDERS' RETURN?

Just because the Saints are releasing Sanders and Kwon Alexander doesn't mean either will loop back to the 49ers. Alexander is most unlikely because of an Achilles tear after his midseason trade from the 49ers.

Sanders and coach Kyle Shanahan have raved about each other from his post-trade 2019 tenure. But the 49ers didn't try signing him before he scored $10 million in 2020 from the Saints. He's earned $64 million in 10 seasons, and Sanders doesn't seem the type to accept a veteran minimum deal ($1 million) for part-time work behind Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Anything the Niners spend over the near-minimum for a veteran free agent should be splurged on a fourth-year veteran, such as Curtis Samuel or JuJu Smith-Schuster.

NO DICE ON DARNOLD

A chorus of national reporters envision the 49ers trading for Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. A couple flaws exist in that logic.

If he's such a perfect fit for Shanahan's offense, why would the Jets ditch him when they intend to replicate Shanahan's scheme with offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, who's worked in Shanahan's shadow since 2014?

Plus, Darnold is not an obvious upgrade. His turnover rate is alarming, he owned the league's worst passer rating last season (72.7), and he's currently rehabbing his throwing shoulder (at the same Orange County facility Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas did their knee recoveries).

If the Jets are so desperate to unload Darnold (2018 No. 3 overall pick) before the fourth and final year of his rookie deal, the 49ers should swap that third-round pick they got for Saleh's exit.

WHERE WOULD JIMMY GO?

In the unexpected event the 49ers part with Garoppolo, enough trade options should exist, though not all make sense.

Washington, for instance, seems like a cruel and unlikely destination, unless Shanahan secretly disdains Garoppolo so much he'd ship him to work under owner Daniel Snyder, a Shanahan-family nemesis.

Garoppolo is "Plan A" for the New England Patriots, according to long-time NFL reporter Greg Bedard. However, Garoppolo remains Plan A for the 49ers, who acquired him from the Patriots on Halloween 2017 for a second-round pick.

Remember, Garoppolo has a no-trade clause and must approve any deal. He's never expressed bitterness over the Patriots dealing him. A Chicago homecoming makes sense based on his family's roots there. Of course, the Jets' Saleh and LaFleur know Garoppolo, but they also know they own the No. 2 draft pick (and, for now, Darnold).

FOR COMPARISON'S SAKE

In terms of the 49ers and Garoppolo, they're 22-8 with him starting (73.3 percent), 7-27 without him (20.6 percent) since 2017.

In terms of Washington and Alex Smith, they were 11-5 with him (68.9 percent), 6-26 without him (18.8 percent) since 2018.

If Smith returned to back up Garoppolo, odds are the 49ers have a winning tandem.

One more comparison:

A decade ago: A 31-year-old powerhouse helped the 49ers snap an eight-year playoff drought and earned All-Pro honors at both defensive tackle and defensive end. That man was Justin Smith (6-foot-4, 285 pounds).

Modern day: A 31-year-old hulk joined the Arizona Cardinals and could play multiple spots on the defensive line to help end their five-year playoff drought. That man is J.J. Watt (6-5, 288).

DRAFT OUTLOOK

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network's draft analyst, shared this analysis that relates to the 49ers' needs:

— If the 49ers wait to draft a quarterback beyond the five he projected for Round 1, Jeremiah likes Stanford's Davis Mills ("quick eyes, drives the ball, intelligent, ACL history") and Texas A&M's Kellen Mond ("Senior Bowl MVP, quick arm, extends plays, inconsistent, slight frame"). Both are third- or fourth-rounders, in Jeremiah's eyes.

— Miami defensive end Gregory Rousseau should go top-15, but he may have moved into top-five territory had he not opted out of 2020; he had 15 1/2 sacks in 2019.

— Cornerback Caleb Farley's short-area quickness — a trait the 49ers covet — gives him an edge over SEC-tested Patrick Surtain II. The next tier: Jaycee Horn and Greg Newsome. And, if the 49ers bypass a first-round cornerback like they've done every year since 2002, Jeremiah recommends Kelvin Joseph, Aaron Robinson, Tyson Campbell and Eric Stokes.

SHERMAN'S ADMIRER

A decade since Sherman entered the NFL out of Stanford (seventh round, Seattle Seahawks), he's influenced the next generation of cornerbacks. One admirer — and potential successor to his 49ers' post — is Northwestern's Newsome.

"It's just his savviness. He uses his smarts out there on the field and that's something I do," Newsome said Tuesday on his pro-day video call with reporters.

Sherman has said since December he expects to hit free agency after three years with the 49ers.

"He's a great zone player and able to jump routes," Newsome added. "I can tell he's huge film guy by the way he reads defenses. He wasn't the fastest guy at the combine so I knew there's something that makes him obviously one of the top cornerbacks in the league, and the majority of that is his savviness and how much he knows the game of football."