September home sales in Sonoma County drop to 11-year low

Sonoma County home sales plunged last month to the lowest level for September in 11 years, the clearest sign yet of a housing market slowdown.

People bought just 327 single-family homes here in September, according to The Press Democrat's monthly housing report compiled by Pacific Union International senior vice president Rick Laws.

That's a nearly 25 percent decrease in homes sold from a year ago, and the fewest sales in September since 2007 when the housing market was entering a historic crash that ended with sale prices cut in half.

“I think everything points to a slower, more measured market,” Laws said. Sales have been slowing since spring “and it's just becoming more and more apparent.”

Too many homes are sitting on the market without offers, because buyers view them as overpriced or the properties lack the preparation to stand out in a more crowded field of houses listed for sale, real estate agents said.

The median price of a single-family home last month hovered at $660,000, a decline of less than 1 percent from August. That represented a nearly 7 percent increase from a year ago, but was below the record median price of $700,000 set in June.

Agents said the first half of the year marked the peak in county home prices. Indeed, median sales prices the past three months lagged those of the first six months of the year.

“We know we're at the top because it's behind us,” said Trish McCall, an agent with Keller Williams in Santa Rosa. She said sellers now must decide whether to sell their homes for a lower price than many expected or to wait until the next cycle of home appreciation, possibly years away.

The runup in county home prices began after the county's housing market hit bottom in February 2009 with a median home price of $305,000. Prices began to rebound in 2012 and for six years increased annually at rates between 8 and 23 percent.

Most of those years were a sellers' market, with relatively tight inventory of homes for sale and occasions when multiple buyers were bidding for the same properties. Those trends were elevated by last fall's wildfires, which destroyed 5,300 homes in the county and prompted a record $738 million worth of home sales here in November and December 2017.

For the first quarter of 2018, sales increased 6 percent from a year ago. However, from April through September, the heart of the annual home sales season, completed transactions fell to the lowest level in eight years.

Through September, sales have declined 5 percent from a year ago.

Real estate brokers and agents called the slowdown a normal part of the housing cycle, one in which prices stop rising when buyers “step away from the table,” as Laws put it. Sluggish sales have resulted in about three months worth of supply available at this sales pace.

For buyers, “we have one of the best selections we've had in a long time,” McCall said. “You don't have to rush.”

However, many sellers feel whiplashed by what seems a sudden drop in buyers' interest, agents said.

“If you haven't sold in 30 days, it's price, condition and location,” said Brenda Alcaron, an agent with Keller Williams in Santa Rosa. Listed homes had “better be dialed in,” not only clean but with attractions like recent bath and kitchen upgrades, she said.

While sellers still have been slow to reduce prices, buyers have been equally reluctant to make lower counteroffers because of uncertainty about “where the bottom's going to be,” said Laura Hall, associate partner with Terra Firma Global Partners in Santa Rosa.

“Nobody wants to do anything because they're afraid of making a poor decision,” Hall said.

Hall has listed a house for $998,000 for seller Melissa Nagle on Marsh Hawk Drive in the Skyhawk neighborhood in east Santa Rosa.

As of Tuesday, the home had sat on the market 33 days. It drew eight groups of potential buyers during an open house “and it's been silent ever since,” Hall said.

If the home fails to sell this fall, Hall said, her client likely will take it off the market this winter and list it again for sale next spring.

Hall quoted a colleague on what it takes for a house seller to land a buyer in this era of rising home inventory: “You have to be the Goldilocks.”

You can reach Staff Writer Robert Digitale at 707-521-5285 or robert.digitale@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @rdigit.