Sonoma County health officer warns of daily jump in COVID-19 cases until early June

As the new coronavirus continues to spread through Sonoma County, public health officials expect three to 12 new cases a day to keep emerging in the coming weeks, with a possible peak still nearly two months away.

Dr. Sundari Mase, who has been leading the county's public health offensive against the COVID-19 pandemic, said Monday the county had a total of 115 cases, of which 84 are active. Thirty people who tested positive for the virus have now recovered.

The pandemic is on track to peak in Sonoma County in late May or early June, Mase said, significantly behind more populous areas of California or hard-hit New York, where nearly 5,000 people have died. By comparison, one death in Sonoma County and 343 in California have been attributed to the virus.

“Our cases … are sort of steadily climbing,” said Mase, the county's health officer. “That peak is going to probably be a little further away for us. We're lagging behind the East Coast.”

State computer modeling shows the number of patients requiring hospitalization in California will peak in late April.

Sonoma County detected its first case of the infectious disease on March 2 - five weeks after the virus was discovered in California - and will reach its apex later than the South Bay and other parts of the state where the contagion was found earlier. On March 14, the county confirmed its first local case contracted by community transmission.

“The statewide modeling is for all the counties,” she said. “And some counties are way ahead of us, like Santa Clara is probably a month ahead of us in terms of cases.”

Mase's comments came during a Q&A session with reporters that followed a live Facebook video presentation aimed at giving county residents an update on efforts to combat the community spread of the virus.

During the video, Mase provided the latest figures on the number of local cases and summarized recent public health directives, including her recommendation that all residents wear face masks when they go outside for essential activities such as work or buying groceries or gasoline. The mask recommendation applies to residents of all ages and is aimed at slowing the spread of the virus by people who are carrying it, some of them unknowingly, Mase said.

“Ordinary face coverings have not been proven to protect the wearer,” she said. “Worn by someone with COVID-19, however, they may reduce the risk of spreading the virus to others.”

If everyone wears a face mask when outside home, it will help contain the virus and keep the local community safer, Mase said. But she discouraged residents from buying new surgical masks and protective medical equipment, which are needed by health care workers.

The general public, she said, could use face coverings made of cloth and can be easily made with T-shirts, sweatshirts or towels.

“Surgical masks and unexpired N-95 masks and other essential protective equipment is not recommended for everyday use for everyone in the general public at this time,” she said.

This equipment is in short supply and needed by health care workers striving to treat the sick, the health officer said.

“Our doctors, physician's assistants, nurse practitioners, nurses, paramedics and other health care providers are bravely working through this emergency to protect the rest of us,” she said.

Immediately after the video, Mase took questions from reporters.

Now that it has reached the 100-case threshold locally, Mase said the county can begin providing more detailed demographic information about residents who have tested positive for the virus.

That information includes age breakdowns for COVID-19 patients who have been hospitalized, locations for travel- related cases and the types of symptoms exhibited. She said the county's epidemiologist is currently working on presenting that information accurately.

Mase expects to conduct live video briefings on Facebook each weekday afternoon, Monday through Friday, followed by questions from reporters carried via the Zoom online video conferencing platform.

The live video, which is also translated into Spanish, follows similar daily public updates conducted most notably by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

During the Q&A portion with the media, Mase said she hopes testing delays and availability soon will be remedied by new rapid testing technology, such as the Xpert Xpress coronavirus test from a company called Sunnyvale-based Cepheid, a subsidiary of Danaher Corp.

The test, which received emergency authorization from the FDA on March 21, yields results within 45 minutes and can be administered at “bedside” by medical workers, according to Cepheid.

County health officials have the test and equipment on order, said Jennifer Larocque, a Sonoma County spokeswoman.

“It would increase our capacity because it's easier to perform and has a fast turnaround,” Larocque said.

The county, which has 500,000 residents, has received results from 2,580 tests; 96%, or 2,465 of them, have been negative.

On Monday, Lake County reported its second confirmed case of COVID-19, one day after the county's first case was identified, according to the county public health officer.

The first case involves a local resident who had contact with “a known case at an out-of-county workplace,” Lake County Public Health Officer Dr. Gary Pace said.

The second case involves a family member of the individual who tested positive.

“There continues to be no signs of community transmission in Lake County,” Pace said in a statement.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.