Jump in Sonoma County coronavirus cases unlikely to alter reopening plans, officials say

Sonoma County marked its single largest jump in coronavirus cases on Saturday, a one-day rise of 30 infections coming just a few weeks after untold Memorial Day celebrations, wider reopening of the local economy and a wave of police-reform protests on local streets.

Saturday marked the third straight day of at least 21 new cases, while Sunday the county reported six new cases, bringing the local total to 758, including four deaths.

Sonoma County Health Officer Dr. Sundari Mase has repeatedly warned the caseload would grow as she eased restrictions on business operations and other gathering places heading into the summer months. But two county supervisors said the higher case numbers alone aren’t likely to derail Mase’s plan to allow bars, gyms, resorts and movie theaters to reopen by the end of this week.

“No, I don’t think it jeopardizes that,” said Supervisor Shirlee Zane, the board’s senior incumbent. “I think we’ve all agreed that we need to move ahead. What it does do is gives all of these businesses pause to reflect on the need to enforce social distancing, mask wearing, hand sanitizer - all of that.”

Supervisor Lynda Hopkins said health officials knew case numbers were destined to rise as the county, state and nation shift into a “living with COVID-19” mode, and more data would be needed to signal a course correction.

“Dr. Mase has said it’s not likely to be just one metric,” said Hopkins, who saw residents swarm her west county district Sunday in search of sunny Russian River and Sonoma Coast beaches. “It would have to be multiple red flags - hospitalization rate, health care system capacity, where are the cases coming from?”

There were 11 COVID-19 patients in Sonoma County hospitals Sunday, including two in intensive care units, according to state data, both points representing a marked decrease during the past two weeks. More than 50% of local hospitals’ ICU beds remained available, along with 722 hospital beds, according to the state.

With most COVID-19 data looking better for the county, the bigger question for Hopkins is whether Sonoma County will pivot and follow Gov. Gavin Newsom’s guidance Friday to reopen even more of the economy. Among those outlets Newsom said could open with county approval: massage parlors, nail salons and tattoo parlors.

Neither Hopkins nor Zane said they had talked with Mase to verify the source of the recent spike in cases. Both said a variety of factors could have played a role. Mase and other public health officials were not available for comment or interviews Sunday.

“You had Memorial Day weekend, a suite of new businesses opening and the protests, all in a very close succession, so you can’t really point to any of them without (investigating further),” Hopkins said.

Aggressive contact tracing for positive cases will be key to ensure ill residents don’t disproportionately spread the disease, she added.

Sonoma County’s COVID-19 reproductive number, a metric used to measure the speed and ease of transmission, topped 1 for the first time recently, outranking all but two other California counties.

Mase has previously pointed to a large number of positive cases associated with families, co-workers and housemates who’ve had close contact with diagnosed individuals.

The large family units have also been cited as a leading cause for the disease’s disproportionate impact on the county’s Latino population, which accounts for more than 75% of cases despite representing just over 27% of the county’s overall population.

The county has yet to release new modeling related to an anticipated second spike, and Mase has been cautious about making predictions in the wake of earlier estimates that did not properly account for how the mid-March stay-home order would help flatten the coronavirus curve.

With the shelter order loosening, other local rules - mandating facial coverings in public and a slew of safeguards and sanitary practices - are now the front line in public health protection, and compliance remains a major concern among top officials.

Zane said adherence to those measures will be key to ensuring the county doesn’t have to pause or pull back on economic and civic activity that’s recently been unleashed.

“It wasn’t sustainable to keep going on like we were with all of those businesses shuttered,” Zane said. “But at the same time, we have to pay attention. I just think we’re going to be living with this virus for quite some time.”

EDITOR’S NOTE: This story has been updated to accurately reflect the sectors of business Gov. Gavin Newsom announced would be eligible to reopen Friday.

You can reach Staff Writer Tyler Silvy at 707-526-8667 or at tyler.silvy@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @tylersilvy.