CHANGING NUMBERS FOR VOTERS, PENSIONS

What follows are excerpts from the Inside Opinion blog by Press Democrat editorial writers Paul Gullixson and Jim Sweeney. The blog can be found on WatchSonomaCounty.com.

Republicans are making big gains in voter affiliation nationally, according to a report published Thursday by Gallup. But California, and especially the Bay Area, is bucking the trend in ways that could shape local legislative and congressional elections.

Gallup's report, based on survey data, rates 10 states as solidly Republican, doubling the number rated as solidly red in 2008. Meanwhile, 12 states are rated as solidly Democratic, down from 30 in 2008.

California is still solidly blue, according to Gallup, and the latest voter registration statistics back that up. A new report from the secretary of state shows a slight registration gain over the past year for Democrats, a larger gain for independents and a continuing decline in Republican registration. Statewide, 43.6 percent of voters are registered Democrats, 30.3 percent are registered Republicans and 21.2 percent decline to state a party preference. The rest are scattered among minor parties.

The marginalization of the GOP in California is especially evident in the Bay Area, where independent voters now outnumber Republicans in five counties -- Alameda, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Marin. The numbers are nearly even in Sonoma County and also in Mendocino County.

The registration report is the first since new congressional and legislative boundaries were drawn, and two local districts are worth watching closely as California holds its first top-two primary.

In the new 2nd Congressional District, which spans the coast from the Golden Gate Bridge to the Oregon border, Democrats have a 49.6 percent to 22.4 percent edge over Republicans, with 20.8 percent of voters declining to state a preference. In the new 10th Assembly District, which includes all of Marin County and much of Sonoma County, the split is 53.8 percent to 19.6 percent in favor of the Democrats with 21.5 percent declining to state.

With a crowded Democratic field, the primary vote could split, allowing a Republican to advance to the November election. But both districts could easily produce a general election featuring two Democrats.

Filing opens Feb. 13. So far, the field for the congressional seat includes Democrats Jared Huffman, Stacy Lawson, Norman Solomon, Susan Adams, Tiffany Renee and William Courtney, Republican Dan Roberts and Andy Caffrey of the Green Party. Candidates for the Assembly seat are expected to include Democrats Michael Allen, Marc Levine, H. Christian Gunderson and Alex Easton-Brown, Republican Philip Yim and independent Joseph Boswell.

-- Jim Sweeney

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A year ago in December, Sonoma County issued $289 million in additional pension obligation bonds as a way to manage runaway retirement costs. Bonds can be a helpful tool. But they come at a risk. (It's a little like addressing one's personal debt by getting a new credit card. You better hope your earnings on the new money you borrow do better than the interest you owe.)

For the Sonoma County Employee Retirement Association, it needs to hit its target of achieving an average 7.75 percent annual return on its investments -- over the next 20 years.

So how did the county do during its first full calendar year? It wasn't close.

According to records recently released by SCERA, the association achieved a return for 2011 of 1 percent, missing its mark by 6.75 percent.

But SCERA is not alone. The California Public Employees Retirement System, the largest public employee retirement system in the state, reported recently that it, too, earned a return of just 1.1 percent on its investments in 2011. CalPERS also is targeting a 7.75 percent average annual return on its investments.

CalSTRS, the retirement system for state teachers and community college instructors, reported that it had earned 2.3 percent on its investments in 2011. (CalSTRS on Thursday lowered its investment forecast from 7.75 percent to 7.5 percent. In so doing, it increases its projected shortfall but also offers a more realistic picture of the problem.)

If these retirement funds do not achieve their targets, the state's current pension fund liability of $240 billion will get much worse.

The same is true of Sonoma County's liability, which stands at $249 million. SCERA's overall average return over the past 10 years? 4.9 percent.

-- Paul Gullixson