TUESDAY'S ELECTION, BY THE NUMBERS

What follows are excerpts from the Inside Opinion blog by Press Democrat editorial writers Paul Gullixson and Jim Sweeney. The blog can be found on WatchSonomaCounty.com.

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On Tuesday, I posted an item wondering whether it would be a long night for Michael Allen. The answer was no, decisively so. Allen finished first by a margin of almost 5,000 votes. That's almost three times larger than his margin of victory two years ago in the 7th Assembly District, which was essentially collapsed in the redistricting process.

Four other incumbents -- Democrat Betsy Butler of Marina del Rey and Republicans Allan Mansoor of Costa Mesa, Tim Donnelly of Twin Peaks and Beth Gaines of Rocklin -- were mentioned in the same item. Mansoor, Donnelly and Gaines all advanced to the general election. Butler's contest remains too close to call with four candidates separated by fewer than 700 votes out of 49,000 cast.

Allen's district is one of about 20 where candidates from the same party finished first and second in the state's first top-two primary. He'll square off with fellow Democrat Marc Levine. Democrats Wes Chesbro and Tom Lynch both advanced in the neighboring 2nd Assembly District.

Chesbro's tally of 47,309 votes was among the highest totals in any Assembly district statewide. The largest total for a winning candidate was 50,502 for Republican K.H. "Katcho" Achadjian in a district that includes part of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. The smallest was 5,419 for Democrat Reggie Jones-Sawyer in a Los Angeles County District.

-- Jim Sweeney

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I'm not sure Tuesday's outcome was quite as positive for Assemblyman Michael Allen as my colleague, Jim, suggests, particularly when considering that Allen had all the top party endorsements, is an incumbent and his campaign -- including independent expenditure committees -- outspent the second-place finisher, Marc Levine, nearly six to one.

Yes, Allen won by a larger margin than in his last primary victory. But he still had a narrow victory and finished second in Marin County to someone who had been something of an unknown outside of San Rafael before this race.

Of all the Sonoma County votes that went to Democrats (not including late absentees, which are still being counted), 57 percent of them went to someone other than Allen. In Marin County, 63 percent went to Democrats other than Allen.

The question for the fall is where are those votes going to go? To say nothing of the 23 percent of the vote in Sonoma County and 20 percent in Marin that went to Republicans.

If the Nov. 6 election offered a traditional runoff featuring the top Republican and top Democrat, Allen no doubt would win. But it's clear he has his work cut out for him, particularly in wooing Marin County Democrats.

-- Paul Gullixson

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Proponents are not conceding, but it does not look good for Proposition 29, the $1-a-pack tax on cigarettes to support cancer research. With all precincts reported, it was losing by about 63,000 votes. With nearly 1 million late absentees left to count, the results could still change. But it's not promising.

What's frustrating is that just three months ago, a statewide poll showed that two-thirds of California voters were inclined to support the tax. But then the tobacco industry jumped in, dumping $66 million into defeating it. Let me assure you, they did not do that because they're concerned about your health or that, as their ads contend, they're worried that you're being over-regulated. They did it because raising taxes discourages kids from starting to smoke and encourages others to quit. And that, pure and simple, is bad for business.

The fact is that more than 60 percent of the states in the nation have a cigarette tax that is higher than California's, which is just 87 cents a pack. Cigarette taxes have proven to be a very effective tool for encouraging people to quit smoking or, better yet, not to start at all.

From what I've heard, the argument that seemed to resonate with voters the most was that Proposition 29 was going to make a new "bureaucracy" and that California didn't need any more government. It's true that there was going to be a nine-member oversight committee that would oversee how the money would be spent. This is very similar to those committees that are established at the local level to oversee how tax measures and bond measures are spent. Why? Because if they didn't create one, the opposition would be howling that there was no accountability for how the money would be spent. Big tobacco wins that argument either way.

And in the end, the companies that produce cigarettes such as Marlboro and Camel convinced nearly 2 million voters that it was better to maintain the status quo.

Too bad. They were just blowing smoke.

-- Paul Gullixson