Santa Rosa weighing three tax and bond measures for fall

As Santa Rosa ponders how to solve its post-fire budget woes, three revenue-raising options have risen to the top: increasing sales taxes, increasing bed taxes, or floating bonds to boost affordable housing.

With time running out to put any of these on the November ballot, the City Council can’t put off a decision any longer.

Tonight, the council, after ordering additional polling, must decide which, if any, of the revenue measures to put before voters in the fall.

City staff are recommending the council put all three on the ballot to fill the hole in the city’s budget. But some council members have expressed concern about asking too much of voters, worried that multiple measures might jeopardize the passage of the bond for affordable housing.

“We’re in a housing crisis,” Councilwoman Julie Combs said. “We need to do what our priority is.”

Councilmembers Tom Schwedhelm and Jack Tibbetts have expressed similar concerns at previous meetings, raising significant questions about the viability of other revenue measures.

The city conducted some additional polling recently in an attempt to better understand voter support for a housing bond, and the results showed support is apparently slipping.

In May, when the city did its first round of polling, likely voters in Santa Rosa were asked about their support for the idea of $370 million county-wide housing bond.

At that time, 64 percent expressed support.

But after that effort fell apart in response to opposition from rural property owners, the city started exploring in earnest the possibility of a Santa Rosa-only affordable housing bond.

When the city did additional polling in recent weeks, however, it found support somewhat softer.

Asked this time around if they supported a Santa Rosa bond, support for the most ambitious version - one that would raise $210 million over 30 years - stood at just 46.7 percent.

That does not bode well for a measure that would need two-thirds support to pass. The smaller the bond, the greater the support, the latest survey found.

A version that would raise $167 million enjoyed 53.4 percent support, which includes those who responded they would “definitely” or “probably” support it.

The $124 million version was supported by 58.8 percent of voters.

The smallest one, a measure that would raise $81 million, got the strongest support, at 64.7 percent. That means that if the vote were held tomorrow, Santa Rosans wouldn’t support any version of what is being called a Housing Recovery Bond.

Given the results of the poll, Combs predicts the council is likely to select either the $124 million or the $167 million version.

“We really need it to be in that range for it to be effective in changing the market,” Combs said.

The $81 million, $124 million, $167 million and $210 million bond options would be funded by property taxes increasing by $19, $29, $39 or $49 respectively per $100,000 of valuation for all private property in the city.

Combs said she’s not too concerned about the weakness in the latest poll numbers, which she said she takes “with a great grain of salt.” She noted the poll questions focusing on support for a bond followed a number of negative questions, such as whether people’s views changed when they heard things that might come out of a negative campaign, like “this measure will just spend taxpayer money on low-income and illegal immigrant populations.”

But there’s unlikely to be any negative campaign, she said, meaning support should be stronger than the poll suggests, she said.

What this means for the fate of the other two revenue measures is unclear. The sales tax measure proposes increasing the tax by a quarter-cent, generating $9 million annually for six years. The bed tax, or transit occupancy tax, is proposed to increase from today’s 9 percent to 12 percent, raising another $1.5 million.

City staff have told the council that absent additional operating revenue, the city is facing staff cuts. By the end of this fiscal year, the city is on track to have a paltry $6.6 million in reserves, nearly $19 million below the city’s policy. The following year, if nothing changes, city’s financial forecast shows it will be broke.

You can reach Staff Writer Kevin McCallum at 707-521-5207 or kevin.mccallum@pressdemocrat.com.