49ers have no room for error in push for top playoff position

SANTA CLARA - They need a break.

The 49ers are freaking exhausted. They started the season 8-0, but since then they're 3-3 and they just lost a home game to an Atlanta Falcons team that won't make the playoffs.

The 49ers will make the postseason - they clinched that already. But they're limping toward the playoffs, not walking or running. And if they don't earn a first-round bye, they might crash and burn.

“We're playing a good team every week,” rookie Pro Bowler Nick Bosa said in the locker room. “In college, you're playing a good team maybe three times a year. In this league, you have to prepare the same every week. It sounds like a broken record. You really have to take your focus to a new level.”

Bosa sounds mentally and physically drained. He never played more than 536 snaps in season at Ohio State, but has played 665 snaps for the 49ers already. The Niners need a week off. And they'll get one if they win their final two regular-season games.

“Everything is still right in front of us,” Bosa said. “What we've done early in the year has helped us get to this point.”

Here are five key factors that will determine whether they earn a bye:

1. Coaching fatigue.

It exists.

Game planning requires immense mental energy. The 49ers spent nearly all of their mental energy preparing for the Baltimore Ravens and the New Orleans Saints.

The offensive game plan against the Saints in particular was dazzling.

Kyle Shanahan seemed like he put his full effort and creativity into that game, gave everything he had.

Then, against the Falcons, he seemed like a kid who hadn't done his homework. Hadn't prepared at all.

“I didn't feel the need to be as aggressive,” Shanahan said Wednesday.

Translation: He thought he didn't have to give his best effort to beat the Falcons.

His team got the message, played down to a weaker opponent and lost.

“The intensity didn't show,” George Kittle said. “You could feel on the whole sideline, whether it was coaches, players, staff, it just felt different. We have to figure out how to change that.”

They have to earn their bye week. No more mental vacations. This is serious stuff.

2. Pass-rush fatigue.

The past three weeks, the 49ers have only recorded three sacks. That's it.

Their sack percentage during that time is just 2.8% - the third worst in the NFL. Sack percentage measures how often a defense sacks a quarterback when he drops back to pass.

The pass-rush problem comes down to depth and injuries. Earlier in the season, the 49ers could send waves of fresh, healthy pass rushers at opposing quarterbacks.

But now, Ronald Blair and D.J. Jones are out for the season, and Dee Ford is expected to be out until the playoffs with a hamstring injury. So the 49ers have just three quality pass rushers left - Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, and each played at least 90% of the defensive snaps against Atlanta.

They're worn down.

“I always want to be out there on every play, and then I realize sometimes it would be better for me to take a couple plays off early in the game,” Bosa said.

When Ford returns, Bosa will get more plays off. Until then, the 49ers need him on the field as much as possible.

“The more you're out there, the more you wear down,” Shanahan said. “But it's time to go. There's not a lot of time left anyways.”

3. Solomon Thomas' playing time.

Thomas is a big reason the 49ers pass rush has tanked the past three games.

With Ford out, Thomas has stepped in as a primary pass rusher. He played 60% of the defensive snaps against the Falcons and made almost no impact. Recorded one tackle. That was his total contribution to the box score.

“I definitely thought he did his job,” Shanahan said about Thomas, the third pick in the 2017 draft. “He wasn't out of place at all. Every time they got to his gap, he was holding it.”

Not good enough. The 49ers need a real pass rusher to take the pressure off Bosa, Buckner and Armstead, who are tired. And the 49ers have a real pass rusher on the bench - Sheldon Day. He sacked Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan on Sunday.

Day should take Thomas' snaps the rest of the season.

4. A second wind?

The pass rush probably won't find a second wind before the playoffs, but the secondary can.

Cornerback Richard Sherman will play Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams after missing last Sunday's game against the Falcons with a Grade 2 hamstring strain.

“I'll be out there,” Sherman said Wednesday. “There is no question.

Nickelback K'Waun Williams also seems on track to return after missing last week with a concussion. Strong safety Jaquiski Tartt hasn't practiced this week and has sat out the past two games with broken ribs, but he could return for the regular-season finale against the Seattle Seahawks.

Meaning the defense should improve the next two weeks, even if the pass rush doesn't.

5. “Controlling destiny.”

Had the 49ers beaten the Falcons, a scenario might have arisen in which the 49ers could have rested their starters in the season finale against Seattle and still earned a bye week. Unlikely, but possible.

Now, the 49ers absolutely must win both of their remaining games for the bye.

But,if they do win both, not only will they receive a first-round bye, they also will get the No. 1 playoff seed and home-field throughout the playoffs.

“It was disappointing to lose,” Shanahan said. “It pissed us off for a while. But it's neat to be able to say to the team, ‘Look guys, we still control our own destiny.'”

Technically, the 49ers don't control their destiny. No one controls destiny. God controls it. The 49ers control their playoff seeding. If they work hard now and win their final two regular-season games, they can rest afterward.

Let deity handle the destiny part.