Grant Cohn: Five 49ers with most to risk in 2017 season

Soon the 49ers training camp will begin and we'll focus on players competing for starting jobs or spots on the final roster.

But there are five people who tower over those training-camp competitions, five people with more on the line than everyone else. Here are those five people.

1. Brian Hoyer.

Hoyer isn't competing to be the starting quarterback — the Niners gave him the job already. But the job may not be his for long.

Hoyer is on his fifth team in six years. He's what you call a journeyman. Still, there's a lot to like about him: He's a veteran, he's improving and his stats from the past two seasons are surprisingly good.

Since 2015, Hoyer has played in 17 games. During those games, his quarterback rating has been 93.7 — a better rating than many quarterbacks have accumulated during their past 17 games. Better than Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick.

You could argue Hoyer is the second-best quarterback in the NFC West right now, second to Russell Wilson. You also could argue Hoyer is the best quarterback the Niners have had since Alex Smith. You even could argue Hoyer is better than Smith.

But Hoyer's tenure as a starting quarterback is on the line because he is defined by one moment.

Actually, five moments in one playoff game. I'm talking the 2016 wild card game against the Chiefs, the biggest game of Hoyer's life, when he threw five interceptions and lost singlehandedly.

That one game defined Hoyer's entire reputation, and this is it: When the stakes are low, he's an above-average quarterback. When the stakes are high, he's so bad he loses the game by himself.

That's why most teams would take Alex Smith over Hoyer. When Smith is at his worst, when he's throwing for only 120 yards in a game, he still can win because he rarely commits a turnover. He's not a team-killer.

Hoyer always will be seen as a team-killer unless he proves otherwise next season. He'll have to lead the 49ers to the playoffs and win one playoff game or the Niners almost certainly will replace him.

2. Kyle Shanahan.

Shanahan is a more extreme version of Hoyer.

At his best, Shanahan is the NFL's premier offensive coach. At his worst — well, you know. Everyone knows. Even people who don't follow football know.

Shanahan orchestrated the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history just a few months ago. That is Shanahan's career-defining moment. When he retires, people will remember him as the guy who blew a sure victory when he didn't run the ball enough with a 25-point lead in the second half against the Patriots. Nothing he can do next season will change that.

Shanahan is in Pete Carroll territory, and that's a bad thing. Carroll won a Super Bowl, but his career is defined by the Super Bowl he lost. Defined by his decision to throw the ball at the goal line instead of handing it to Marshawn Lynch so he could run it in the end zone for the win. Carroll seems to have slowly unraveled as a coach since that moment.

Will the same thing happen to Shanahan? Can he succeed despite his past, transcend his past? Or will his past ruin his future?

3. Robert Saleh.

The 49ers hired Saleh as their defensive coordinator for two reasons: he was available, and he comes from the Seahawks-style of defense the Niners want to use.

But, the Niners' new defensive coordinator has no experience being a defensive coordinator. He was a linebackers coach the past three seasons. He never has called a play, made a halftime adjustment or put together a game plan.

Saleh wasn't even the 49ers' first choice. They wanted Gus Bradley or Vic Fangio. But, Kyle Shanahan couldn't assemble his coaching staff until after the Super Bowl, and by then Bradley already had joined the Chargers, and Fangio didn't want to leave the Bears, and all the other good defensive coordinators had been hired. So, the Niners settled for Saleh.

Next season will be an audition for Saleh. If he doesn't coach well, the Niners may fire him and hire someone who has experience running a defense.

4. John Lynch.

Football pundits almost universally praised Lynch for the picks he made during this year's draft. He was the King of April.

His predecessor, Trent Baalke, often was the King of April, too. Pundits routinely called him a genius after drafts. But when the season came around and his picks underperformed or couldn't play because of injury, Baalke didn't look so smart anymore. He became the Fool of September, October, November and December.

Lynch will be judged during those months, too. The praise he received during April means nothing. His picks have to perform.

Will Solomon Thomas perform? Or will Lynch look unwise for spending the No. 3 pick on an interior rusher who's no Warren Sapp or 'Mean' Joe Greene?

Will Reuben Foster perform? Or will he fail another drug test? Or will he need another shoulder surgery? Will he play at all?

Will Ahkello Witherspoon perform? Or will he be afraid to tackle like he was in college?

Those were Lynch's three first picks, and they will define his reputation in the NFL. Either he'll seem like a natural talent evaluator, or a television announcer who's in over his head.

5. Jed York.

York is the guy at the Texas Holdem table who just pushed his short stack of chips into the pot. He's all in.

Not so long ago when Jim Harbaugh was around, York had a large stack of chips. But, York folded that hand for reasons still unknown and bet big money on Baalke. York lost a lot of chips betting that Baalke hand, held onto it for way too long when he should have folded it before the flop.

York also lost chips betting on Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly — a couple of deuces. The lowest cards in the deck. Now, York barely has enough chips to pay the blinds. He needs to make a bet fast or he'll be out of the game. So, he's going all in with a pair of eights.

In this analogy, the eights are Shanahan and Lynch. Eights aren't bad cards. They're not face cards, either. Not the cards you want when you're all in. York could lose this hand.

Shanahan and Lynch are both bright guys, but they're not sure things. They're novices. Sure, they could turn into a pair of aces, but there's no guarantee. And York gave them six-year contracts. A desperate move by a desperate owner. No one else would have given those two six-year contracts.

York's fate is tied to Shanahan and Lynch. He can't fire them — they're under contract until 2023. If they fail, York will be held responsible for their failure by his mom, the real owner of the team. She'll probably fire him. And if they succeed, York will redeem himself for the mistakes he made in the past.

We'll see if he played his cards right.

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the 'Inside the 49ers' blog for The Press Democrat's website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.