Barber: Khalil Mack's holdout is Raiders' first crisis of Gruden II

Jon Gruden is facing his first crisis as the new-old head coach of the Oakland ? Raiders.

Gruden might not recognize it as such, because (a) he is probably too confident in his abilities to believe in crises and (b) it’s hard to spot trouble coming when your eyes are glued to video cut-ups of your kickoff coverage team. But Gruden has a problem.

It’s Khalil Mack, who would be the Raiders’ best player if he were currently playing for the Raiders.

He’s not, as you know. Mack hasn’t suited up in silver and black since Dec. 31. He skipped every offseason workout, he ignored training camp and he won’t be in Oakland on Friday when the Raiders stage their biggest dress rehearsal for the 2018 regular season, the third preseason game, against Green Bay.

Mack won’t be there because he wants more money. He is scheduled to make about $13.85 million this season, the last of a four-year contract term. That sounds like a lot of dough, to be sure, but he is worth much more than that.

Mack might be the best defensive player in the NFL. Denver’s Von Miller is the most formidable pass rusher, but Mack’s game is more complete. San Diego’s Joey Bosa might be in Mack’s class in a year or two; he isn’t yet. Mack’s competition for the defensive crown is probably Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald - another 2018 summer holdout.

Your eyes confirm Mack’s ability every time you see him pushing an offensive tackle and a tight end backward into the pocket at the same time, or when you see him knock a blocker aside and chase the quarterback into the arms of Bruce Irvin. And it isn’t just your eyes.

The scouting service Pro Football Focus charts what it calls “impact plays,” basically the sum of defensive stops and quarterback pressures.

According to PFF, four NFL edge rushers have tallied 120 or more impact plays in a season since they began recording the stat, and three of them were Khalil Mack. He had 120 in 2015, a peak of 129 in 2016 and 120 again in 2017. Only Miami’s Olivier Vernon (121 in 2015) prevented a clean sweep by the Raider.

To put it simply, Mack is the Raiders’ best defensive player since Howie Long, at least. Charles Woodson is beloved here, but his best years were in Green Bay.

Mack’s dominance is unprecedented since the Raiders’ return to Oakland in 1995.

So he wants to get paid. And not just for this year. Mack wants a deal that will provide long-term security and make him the richest defender in the NFL, and among the few richest players at any position.

This didn’t seem like a crisis in May, or even when the Raiders hit Napa in July. Guys hold out. They almost always return to the fold before missing regular-season games.

That’s what Oakland left tackle Donald Penn did last year. He returned on Aug. 23, 2017, and began negotiating a pay raise from the Raiders, which he received on Sept. 15.

The odds are still good that Mack will abandon his holdout and come back to the Raiders before they open against the Rams on Sept. 10. But this isn’t a sure thing by any means.

On Monday, CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora laid out a case for Mack not being in pads for the Rams game. He noted, for example, that Mack’s agent, Joel Segal, and Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie reportedly aren’t even at the negotiating table. It’s not like they’re trying to close that final $3-million-a-year gap.

Meanwhile, we have begun to see stories on potential trade partners. Also Monday, the gambling site OddsShark posted odds on Mack’s most likely landing spot. The Raiders weren’t even No. 1. They were behind the Packers. Teams like the Bears, Jets and Bills were also high on the list.

I’m not giving credence to the trade rumors. But we have to admit that Mack is deeply miffed after watching the Raiders give lucrative extensions to quarterback Derek Carr and guard Gabe Jackson, two members of Mack’s 2014 draft class, and that this could be a sticky and protracted process.

And one more thing to acknowledge: Gruden’s standing could take a hit if Mack’s holdout continues into the regular season, or if the unimaginable occurs and the Raiders trade the defensive end.

I’m not referring to Gruden’s employment status. He’s in line for $100 million over 10 seasons. He’d have to do a lot of screwing up to jeopardize his position over the next few years.

But Gruden’s standing among Raiders fans is less concrete - a significant factor as the team prepares to rearrange its fan base by moving from Oakland to Las Vegas in 2019 or 2020. And so is his standing among his players.

Veteran Raiders fans love Gruden. They never stopped loving him after Al Davis traded him to Tampa Bay in 2002. But the team has younger supporters in Oakland, and potential fans in Vegas, who are less devoted to him.

If the Raiders snub Mack because he’s looking for, say, $80 million in guaranteed money, it won’t be lost on the customers that Gruden is guaranteed $100 million.

As for the players, let’s be honest. Most of the current Raiders know Gruden primarily as a “Monday Night Football” analyst. I’m sure they love his energy, humor and enthusiasm. He remains a great motivator as a coach.

But if Mack doesn’t get his money soon, it’s not going to go over well in the locker room, especially among defensive players.

And Gruden will bear the brunt. McKenzie and team owner Mark Davis have input and influence, but we all know this is Gruden’s team. And so far, he has been publicly cavalier about Mack.

On July 30, Gruden reminded NFL Network that, “We weren’t very good last year on defense with Khalil Mack. … And we hope Khalil gets here, but in the time being, we’ve got plenty of guys who need work.”

Translation: Mack may be a great player, but he’s one of 90 on the preseason roster. He’s ultimately expendable.

It was probably just posturing. I’m sure Gruden knows Mack’s true value to the Raiders. But if you talk to people who know Gruden well, they’ll tell you that he doesn’t have a lot of sympathy for, or patience with, players who aren’t on the field at any given time.

That goes for guys who are injured, and certainly for holdouts.

Gruden softened a little last week, calling Mack the Raiders’ “best player” and “really a great guy.” He wants Mack in uniform as soon as possible. But under what terms? Gruden is as headstrong as any coach. He believes in his system as much as he believes in the talents of any player.

It’s not time for Raiders fans to panic. But you should accept at least the possibility that Mack will miss significant time, or even end up wearing the green of the Packers or Jets. And Gruden should accept that he won’t be hailed as the good guy if that occurs.

You can reach columnist Phil Barber at (707) 521-5218 or phil.barber@pressdemocrat.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Skinny_Post.