Barber: Gloomy thoughts about Giants, A's in 2019

Ah, late March, when the wildflowers bloom and hope springs eternal everywhere Major League Baseball is played. Except for here in the Bay Area - or at least at my house - where a feeling of gloom is seeping in around the edges.

I hope I’m wrong, because I like to watch good baseball, and September is a lot more fun when there’s a team or two in contention. But as the 2019 MLB season opens this week, I’m finding it hard to be bullish on the local boys.

The Giants have done little to make us excited this offseason. To a large extent, in fact, they are recycling the same team that went 73-89 and ranked 14th among the 15 National League teams in runs, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage last year.

In Farhan Zaidi’s first few months as team president, he has adjusted the fine-tuning rather than overhaul the machinery. The main additions to the roster are outfielder Gerardo Parra, third baseman Yangervis Solarte and starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz. Fine-tuning? Sorry, that’s more like squirting the keyboard with a can of condensed air.

It’s Zaidi’s usual schtick, and it may be the best course in the long run. But it isn’t bound to make 2019 much fun.

The Giants’ problems go beyond the standings, where they are projected - by both FanGraphs and the Vegas oddmakers - of finishing last in the NL West. This team is shaping up to be boring. Again. With a few notable exceptions, it is composed of players who are just past their prime (Evan Longoria, Pablo Sandoval, Jeff Samardzija) and newer parts who won’t be confused for top-100 prospects (Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, Andrew Suarez).

You knew all of this. No one has suggested the Giants would be challenging the Dodgers in 2019.

But optimism has a way of sneaking past your defenses this time of year. Maybe you have seen some vital signs from the Giants during spring training. First baseman Brandon Belt is killing the ball. Parra and second baseman Joe Panik are knocking it around pretty good, too. Pomeranz and Samardzija are both pitching well. Relievers Will Smith and Tony Watson have been practically untouchable.

You start lining up the ?what-ifs, and you can almost turn the Giants into a better-than-.500 team. The problem is the what-ifs that could go the other way. And they are big ones.

Like, what if Smith fails to lock down the closer role for Bruce Bochy? And what if Buster Posey, expected to occupy his God-given spot in the middle of the batting order, doesn’t regain the old pop in his bat after offseason hip surgery? Here’s the whopper: What if Madison Bumgarner has lost his dominance?

The past two seasons have largely been washouts for Bumgarner, but his injuries were flukes, caused by an ornery dirt bike and a hot line drive. His pitching arm is undamaged. But have you watched him at all this spring? His only problem is getting people out. As of Saturday, Bum’s pitching numbers included an ERA of 8.27 and an opposing batting average of .366.

No, you can’t take Cactus League numbers too seriously. It’s interesting to note, though, that Bumgarner’s spring stats have generally been pretty good throughout his career. Last year, for example, he had a 3.43 ERA and a nice 1.05 WHIP. Opponents hit .231 against him.

Ask yourself what the Giants would be if Bumgarner struggles this season. It looks like a disaster.

The A’s, by contrast, have been the ray of sunshine in our 2019 forecast. They might have been the best story in baseball last year. They crushed home runs, made comeback after comeback and chased the Houston Astros right to the gates of the postseason. And most of their best players are young. Why shouldn’t they match, or even improve upon, that 97-win season?

It doesn’t feel like they will, though. And the experts agree. The betting site Odds Shark has set the over/under for Oakland wins at 83.5, slightly above .500. FanGraphs is tougher than that, projecting the A’s to finish 78-84.

What? Our precocious darlings? How can this be?

Well, a lot of things went right for the A’s last year. All those close wins demonstrated heart and poise. They also might be difficult to reproduce. “Regression to the mean” and all that. Two of the team’s most important leaders, Jed Lowrie and Jonathan Lucroy, were allowed to walk away in the offseason. And a bumper crop of exciting young talent, including pitcher Jesus Luzardo, infielder Franklin Barreto and catcher Sean Murphy, may be a year or two away from producing.

There’s another thing that will be hard to re-create in 2019, and I’ve written about it before. Manager Bob Melvin worked miracles last year with a revolving set of starting pitchers that looked more like the cast of Gilligan’s Island than the Big 3 rotation of the early 2000s.

Melvin will likely be faced with all of the same challenges this season. The A’s have a plentiful and accomplished bullpen, but no relief pitcher can throw every day. You need a few decent starters, and the only ones in Oakland who can really be counted upon to pitch like big leaguers are Mike Fiers and newcomer Marco Estrada. Everyone else is either unproven, mediocre or injured. It’s hard to look at that raw material and figure on another 97 wins.

I don’t know how FanGraphs’ expectations can be that low for the A’s. Nor am I convinced they’re a playoff team in 2019.

Maybe I’m being too glum. But you might have noticed that the A’s cold-opened the season with a two-game series against the Mariners in Japan, and dropped both contests. Seattle is 2-0. Oakland is 0-2. And every other MLB team is 0-0. It’s not all that alarming. The A’s started 5-10 last season before finding their groove.

On the other hand, Fiers was pretty awful in the first game, surrendering a grand slam and departing after three innings. And first baseman Matt Olson, a budding star, broke the hamate bone in his right hand and underwent surgery Friday. He could miss a couple months. An ominous start, to say the least.

In a few days, actual baseball will replace this conjecture. Lap it up. Because if a few major questions are answered in the negative, we may be pining for Jimmy Garoppolo and Antonio Brown by the time August turns to September.

You can reach columnist Phil Barber at 707-521-5263 or phil.barber@pressdemocrat.com.