How can 49ers improve red-zone offense?

SANTA CLARA - One thing in particular makes 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan special.

He creates “explosive” plays: successful runs that gain at least 12 yards or passes that gain at least 16 yards. He draws these up as well as anyone in the NFL.

Last season, 13% of the 49ers' offensive plays were explosive - the second-highest rate in the NFL. Only the Kansas City Chiefs recorded a higher rate of explosive plays (14%), and they had the MVP in quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Shanahan had backup quarterbacks most of the season after starter Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in Week 3.

Shanahan's mastery of the big play is one reason some football analysts predict the 49ers will make the playoffs after winning just four games in 2018. But big plays alone probably won't determine how successful the 49ers will be next season.

The most important stat for Shanahan is his red-zone touchdown percentage. Always has been. Always will be. Since he became an NFL offensive coordinator in 2008, his offenses have ranked in the top 16 out of 32 teams in red-zone scoring percentage just three times - in 2009 with the Houston Texans, in 2012 with the Washington Redskins and in 2016 with the Atlanta Falcons. And those were the only seasons his teams had winning records.

Shanahan knows how to drive the ball down the field in an instant, but he still is learning how to finish the drive and put the ball in the end zone consistently.

The 49ers will go as far as Shanahan's red-zone offense takes them. Here's why it struggled in the past, and what he has done to improve it this offseason:

1. Shanahan likes small, fast running backs.

Think Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnnon. Players who weigh roughly 200 pounds and run 4.4-second 40-yard dashes. Players who make the offense more explosive, but don't help in the red zone because they don't have the size to power through.

Last season, when the 49ers had the ball on their side of the field between the 21-yard line and midfield, they averaged a whopping 5.41 yards per carry - fifth best in the NFL. The 49ers' electric running backs had space to run and speed to break away from the defense.

But they lacked the size and power to push their way across the goal line. When the 49ers had the ball inside their opponent's 10-yard line, they averaged just 1.06 yards per carry (second worst in the NFL) and scored just five rushing touchdowns (third worst).

To compare, the Rams, who use a version of Shanahan's offensive scheme, averaged 2.43 yards per carry and scored 20 rushing touchdowns inside their opponent's 10-yard line in 2018, because they have big running backs. Todd Gurley in particular is big. He weighs 224 pounds.

The 49ers' biggest running back, Tevin Coleman, weighs just 210 pounds. They signed him this offseason - he used to play for the Atlanta Falcons.

And he probably won't help the 49ers' run game near the end zone. Coleman averaged 1.3 yards per carry inside the 10-yard line last season. But he caught four touchdown passes in that area of the field, so he might help the 49ers' red-zone offense as a receiver.

The 49ers also spent their third-round pick this year on a wide receiver who doubles as a short-yardage running back - Jalen Hurd. He's 6-foot-4, 227 pounds, and in 2015 was one of the elite short-yardage backs in college football. Concussions made him less effective and forced him to change positions.

Hurd primarily will play wide receiver for the 49ers, but they could use him as a running back near the end zone as well. He might be their best option. So, Shanahan seems to be getting the message.

2. Shanahan likes small, quick wide receivers.

Again, players who make the offense more explosive, but don't necessarily help in the red zone. Think Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor and Dante Pettis. Little guys.

These receivers specialize in getting open. They create separation between themselves and defensive backs. But in the red zone, they can't separate consistently because there's no room to separate in. The defense has to cover just a tiny area of grass. So, the offense needs a receiver who can make difficult grabs with bodies around him. A big, strong guy.

In the second round of this year's draft, the 49ers took Deebo Samuel, another quick receiver who's only 5-foot-11 and struggles making contested catches. He may not help the red-zone offense.

Hurd, the third-round pick, is 6-foot-4. But he made just two catches in the red zone at Baylor last season, and still is learning how to play receiver.

In the sixth round, the 49ers drafted tight end Kaden Smith, who's 6-5. And during free agency, they signed veteran wide receiver Jordan Matthews, who's 6-3. The 49ers might envision those two as their red-zone specialists. The 49ers seem to be getting the vision.

3. Shanahan has struggled getting George Kittle the ball in the end zone.

Kittle's breakout season in 2018 surprised the entire league, including his own coaching staff to an extent.

Even as Kittle established himself as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver on the 49ers, Shanahan and red-zone coordinator Jon Embree didn't seem to trust Kittle to make difficult catches in the end zone. So, they often threw him screen passes outside the end zone and asked him to bulldoze his way across the goal line - a major reason he scored only two red-zone touchdowns all season.

“Coach Embree shows me every single play, like, ‘This should work, this should work, this should work,” Kittle said during OTAs. “And then when it doesn't work, it's just a disappointment.”

Embree and Shanahan may have a different idea of what should work for Kittle in the red zone next season.

During OTAs, the 49ers called eight passes for Kittle inside the 20-yard line, and he caught four of them for touchdowns. Last season, they called 18 passes for him in the red zone and he caught just two of them for touchdowns.

If Kittle keeps converting 50% of his red-zone targets into points, the 49ers may be on to something.