Barber: Bizarre NBA offseason gives Warriors hope

Let me see if I’ve got this straight. Aaah, who am I kidding? There’s no way I can grasp half of what’s happened in the NBA over the past couple of weeks.

As each of the four previous seasons began, the league contained one certainty. The Warriors were the dominant team, and anyone else would have to go through Oakland to win the NBA championship. The Warriors are not That Team this year. Some people wonder whether they can even make the playoffs.

And into that vacuum swoops … who? Who, exactly, is the NBA’s new favorite? If you know, please email, because my head is spinning too fast for rational thought.

The three biggest threats to the Warriors last season, I believe it’s safe to say, were the Milwaukee Bucks, the Toronto Raptors and the Houston Rockets. One of those squads - the one that took the title from the Warriors - lost its superstar, Kawhi Leonard, in free agency and is suddenly a shell of the team that popped champagne less than a month ago. Canada hasn’t been thrown into his much turmoil since the maple syrup shortage of the 1920s.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have decided to stand pat, and the Bucks lost a couple of important contributors in guard Malcolm Brogdon and forward Nikola Mirotic. It’s hard to imagine either of them being much better than they were in 2018-19, absent a big trade. Yet it remains difficult to locate their places in the order, because so much around them has shifted.

The Nets, Clippers and Lakers have “won” the summer so far, according to people tasked with divining future outcomes based on paper transactions. But will any of them really challenge for the title in 2020?

Probably not the Nets. They put Brooklyn on the NBA map (and crushed the hearts of the New York Knicks) by signing two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant and trading for Kyrie Irving and his beautiful handles. The Nets got some complementary pieces, too, and lost some others, including a good young guard in D’Angelo Russell. Without Durant, who is likely to miss the entire upcoming season while rehabbing his torn Achilles tendon, Brooklyn looks to be at least one year away from any shot at greatness.

The Clippers? Yes, they were good enough to push the Warriors to six games in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs, and now they’re a whole lot better. But are they the NBA’s best? That would depend on Leonard staying healthy and do-everything forward Paul George staying motivated, things that haven’t always happened in recent years.

The Lakers? They got a star player, power forward Anthony Davis, to pair with the one they already had, the great LeBron James, and they picked up center DeMarcus Cousins at a bargain rate. They swapped out some good young players for some pretty good veterans. They have almost certainly improved. But not everyone can function in James’ orbit. Can Davis? Can Cousins? And is this the LeBron James who took an underwhelming Cleveland team to the NBA Finals in 2018, or the one who looked old and uninspired in Los Angeles last season?

If it seems like I’m using a lot of question marks, it’s because I have a lot more questions than answers at this point.

What about the Portland Trail Blazers? They somehow made it to the West finals last year. But beyond the stellar backcourt combo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, Portland has largely reshuffled its deck this summer. Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu and Seth Curry (among others) are out. Hassan Whiteside and Kent Bazemore (among others) are in. I don’t know what it means for the Blazers yet. I do know that their third-best player, center Jusuf Nurkic, won’t play until February or so.

How about the Boston Celtics? They won 49 games last year. But does the acquisition of All-Star guard Kemba Walker outweigh the loss of Irving and dependable center Al Horford? Probably not, right? Or the Philadelphia 76ers? They won 51 and have now picked up Horford. They also lost moody defensive ace Jimmy Butler and sharpshooter J.J. Redick. Another case of who-the-hell-knows.

The Utah Jazz? Is Mike Conley the missing piece that can take them from the middle of the pack to the Western mountaintop?

All I can say with confidence is this: The 2019-20 NBA season will be a work in progress. The picture will change between now and November, and then again by February, and then again by the time the playoffs start. The 2020 postseason seems farther away and less predictable than the 2040 presidential election (though my money’s on Malia Obama).

And you know what? I can’t get enough of it. This has been the weirdest, plot-twistiest and most dramatic offseason I’ve ever seen, in any sport. It isn’t great news for people who like to see athletes loyally stick with one team for all or most of a career. It kills the pleasant dream of sports franchises being families as much as businesses. But man, it’s going to be kind of thrilling to see which of these newly constructed teams coalesce into powerful forces, and which are duds.

Oh, and one more thing. The topsy-turvy NBA gives the Warriors hope.

Steve Kerr’s team won’t be the one we’ve seen since 2014-15. You don’t lose Durant, Cousins and Andre Iguodala and bounce right back. Russell and Willie Cauley-Stein are interesting young prospects, but it isn’t clear how well, and how quickly, Kerr can integrate them.

No, there’s no denying the Warriors have fallen a rung or two. But no single opponent is leaving them in the dust. And if the Warriors have to exercise excruciating patience while waiting for Klay Thompson’s ACL to heal, some of those other teams, like the Clippers, Lakers and 76ers, aren’t likely to tear from the starting gate at a full gallop, either. They have too many puzzle pieces to fit together.

The Warriors must believe that if they get MVP-level shooting from Stephen Curry, defensive wizardry from Draymond Green, and occasional elevated play from Russell and Cauley-Stein, they can at least be competitive. And then, at some point in January or February or March, Thompson will be back. And then … who knows?

Put it this way. The Warriors lost their crown in June. But the team that snatched it has grown ill and is currently attached to a respirator. And none of the other potential heirs stands clearly above the rest.

That might be the strangest thing about this very strange NBA offseason. The Warriors, despite everything that has gone stunningly wrong for them, have a fighting chance.

You can reach columnist Phil Barber at 707-521-5263 or phil.barber@pressdemocrat.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Skinny_Post.