Grant Cohn: Conducting an autopsy of 49ers' season

The 49ers need help.

This time of year, every NFL team scouts itself. Combs through the previous season and discovers what went right and what went wrong. You’d think the head coach would be the perfect person to lead this project. He isn’t. He’s biased, and so are his assistant coaches. They all think the same way and have become too close to their team.

Kyle Shanahan needs an unbiased outsider to direct the autopsy of last season. Someone whose emotions aren’t involved. Someone objective.

I nominate me.

You might think I’m prejudiced against Shanahan because I’ve criticized him at times the past two seasons. I swear I’m not. I totally get what Shanahan does well, and I can show you with statistics.

When you analyze Shanahan’s 2018 offense, you must start with his production on first and 10. It was remarkable. On that down, the 49ers averaged 15 yards per completion (tops in the NFL), 5.3 yards per carry (third best) and 6.9 yards per play (fourth best).

The Niners accomplished these impressive numbers even though they didn’t have starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for 13 games, and missed starting running back Jerick McKinnon the entire season.

Shanahan’s 1st-and-10 scheme was the star of the 49ers’ season.

But it was the problem, too. This is what Shanahan’s loyal assistants probably won’t tell him, and what he needs to address for 2019 and beyond.

Shanahan’s first-down offense is a big-play offense. That’s good and bad. When the big play works, he’s a genius. When it doesn’t work, which is often, he puts his offense in a bad position.

Here’s what I mean by a bad position: Shanahan calls low-percentage passes on first and 10. Calls lots of play-action passes that travel more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, as well as screen passes that have no secondary option. If the screen isn’t open, the quarterback has to throw the ball away. As a result of his play calling, the 49ers’ completion percentage on first and 10 was just 61.4 - seventh worst in the NFL.

You’re probably thinking, “With Jimmy G, the 49ers were so much better on first down.”

They weren’t. During Garoppolo’s three starts, he completed only 54.8 of his passes on first and 10, and averaged a whopping 18.1 yards per completion. He was the most extreme example of Shanahan’s all-or-nothing offensive mentality.

Shanahan’s running game has an all-or-nothing mindset, too. Shanahan prefers small, fast running backs who run outside the tackles for long gains. That strategy can be successful. But here’s the problem: 15.6 percent of those runs on first and 10 gained nothing or lost yards. That’s a very high percentage. Shanahan’s small, fast running backs stay in the backfield a long time as they try to run around the edge of the defense. And, they don’t gain yards after contact. They go down.

What’s bad about a boom-or-bust offense on first and 10? It frequently leads to second and 10 - and that’s not where you want to be. The 49ers’ offense faced second-and-10-or-more 140 times last season, which was 41.8 percent of all their second downs, the ninth-highest rate - ninth-worst rate - in the NFL. This is an important statistic.

Of the 14 teams that had the highest rate of second-and-10-or-more plays, 13 missed the playoffs. And of the eight teams that had the lowest rate of second-and-10-or-more plays, seven made the playoffs. Those teams were the Bears, the Texans, the Seahawks, the Rams, the Ravens, the Saints and the Super Bowl champs - the Patriots.

It’s more important to gain some yards consistently on first and 10, rather than lots of yards every once in a while.

Second and 10 is problematic, because the offense becomes one-dimensional and predictable. When an offense faces second and 10, it works from a deficit. It’s like being late with your homework. Shanahan called passes 70 percent of the time on second and 10 or more. When an offense is one-dimensional, the defense has the advantage. It can blitz and play aggressively.

Shanahan struggles more than most offensive coaches on second-and-10-or-more. The 49ers averaged only 5.37 yards per play from that down and distance - eighth worst in the NFL.

Once an offense finds itself in second and 10, it’s just one bad play away from third and 10. And the NFL’s average first-down conversion rate on third-and-10-or-more is a microscopic 21.6 percent.

Every offense should avoid third and long at all costs.

Shanahan doesn’t do that. His offense faced third-and-10-or-more 67 times out of 208 total third downs - 32.2 percent, the eighth-highest rate in the league. The Patriots, of course, had the best percentage - 21 percent.

Football people often say third down is the most important down, the money down. And the 49ers certainly struggle on third down. That’s because they have to deal with third and long so often. And that’s because their all-or-nothing first-down offense sets them up for third and long. First down dictates the rest of the offensive series.

To improve on third down, the 49ers shouldn’t practice more third-down plays - they should practice more first-down plays. Make first down a bigger point of emphasis. Add more check-down options on first and 10, and practice checking down. Yes, practice throwing that boring short pass, just as Tom Brady and Drew Brees always have done.

This small adjustment will drastically improve the 49ers’ offense. I propose it in a good spirit as an interested outsider. The 49ers owe me a nickel.

Grant Cohn covers the 49ers and Bay Area sports for The Press Democrat and pressdemocrat.com in Santa Rosa. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.