Wine Country, or 'whine' country?

If you are travelling here for a weekend or extended vacation to enjoy this stunning county then you are likely in the 'wine country' camp. Conversely, if you find yourself hunting for a home to purchase or even rent, you may very well feel like it is 'whine country,' as you spend your days lamenting over the choices or lack thereof for where you will plant your roots. The velocity within the markets is extraordinary and leaves many pondering about the prices being paid for shelter.

To be successful at the endeavor of buying real estate in Sonoma County you must first understand local inventory trends. In doing so, you will fill the void left by macro analysis of the nation, state, and region – thereby unlocking a key portion in valuing this commodity. According to BAREIS MLS, there were 702 single-family homes for sale as April concluded – a disappointing three percent below where the market was a year ago.

The county welcomed 454 new listings to the market in April – 24 percent less than this same time last year – while 547 units garnered accepted offers during the month – a spike of 25 percent more than the prior April. Buyers managed to formally acquire 430 homes by the end of the month, leaving the county with a months' supply of inventory (MSI) of 1.5 – good macro information.

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

As the population of the Santa Rosa marketplace now approximates 170,000 people it is no wonder why the largest volume of transactions in the North Bay occur here every year. This gateway to wine country is comprised of five distinct regions, each with numerous communities within their boundaries.

The submarket of northeast Santa Rosa consists of picturesque landscapes and iconic landmarks, like the Flamingo Hotel with its twirling pink topper. April saw the introduction of 53 new homes to this market which allowed the inventory to grow by months end, albeit marginally, to 100 units for sale. Buyers and sellers came to agreement on 74 new contracts – 17 percent more than the prior April, further encouraging buyers into believing they will find their next home this year. Meanwhile, sellers were able to complete the sale of an additional 74 properties during the month, actually compressing the MSI to 1.4 – begging to question, what will it take to bring about more inventory?.

In southeast Santa Rosa, where the sun rises on the trails of Annadel State Park and sets on Holland Heights, there were 48 homes available as April concluded – 31 of those being new to the market during the month. Buyers garnered accepted offers on 41 homes – more than at any time last year – while 37 properties cleared title in formal transfers to new owners thereby allowing the MSI to tumble to 1.3 – indicating a very shallow supply.

Oakmont is an active adult community located on Santa Rosa's extreme eastern boundary and nestled in the Valley of the Moon with well over 4,000 residents enjoying the good life. This submarket has been no stranger to supply constrained forces either as the number of available homes slipped 21 percent from last year to close out the month with just 22 available units. Buyers took notice as only 17 homes were newly introduced to the market during April while sellers found themselves busier than any time during the prior 12 months as they negotiated 25 new contracts. The month saw the completion of 19 more deals which allowed the MSI to settle at 1.2.

Turning our attention across the highway to northwest Santa Rosa, this region welcomed 63 new listings to market, but that activity was narrowly edged out by the buyers in waiting as 71 new contracts got accepted leaving a scant 47 units available at months end. Sellers experienced a very steady flow of completed sales as 46 properties formally transferred ownership thereby reflecting a steady MSI of 1.0.

As April's final numbers were tallied, southwest Santa Rosa residents could select from just 22 remaining homes for purchase consideration – this included the 20 that were newly introduced during the month as well. Buyers were out in force and managed to ratify 23 new offers by months end while sellers handed over keys on another 15 properties allowing the MSI to creep up to 1.5.

Put to rest the whining, dive into the details and trends of the markets so you may realize as you look back at prior sales for understanding you must also look ahead to see what is coming. This is the exercise you must go through as you encounter and account for the velocity that we are seeing in the markets today. In the end, you too will come to know this as your wine country.