Break in rain means stretch of dry days for North Bay

After the possibility of some lingering showers Sunday, the extended forecast for the North Bay shows a patch of dry weather in the coming week, with little chance of rain through Friday.

Sunday’s rain could lightly douse areas north of the Golden Gate Bridge, said Diana Henderson, a National Weather Service forecaster, but “definitely by Monday, everyone will be drying out, through at least Thursday and Friday.”

Early in the week, daytime highs are expected to be in the mid-50s, with overnight lows in the upper 30s, she said. By Thursday, the daytime highs are predicted to be in the upper 50s and overnight dipping into the low 40s.

“It’s a slight warming trend,” Henderson said. “I don’t think anyone will really notice.”

With North Coast reservoirs nearly topping their winter storage levels and rainfall totals around average to date for the season, a week of clear, temperate weather isn’t cause for immediate concern.

Lake Mendocino near Ukiah is at around 98 percent of its wintertime capacity. The larger Lake Sonoma, northwest of Healdsburg, is at about 94 percent.

The season’s strong El Niño weather pattern continues to bolster hopes that much of the state will be able to escape the prolonged drought.

“The climate prediction folks back East are still looking at it (rain) being above average,” Henderson said of the of the totals expected for California.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest forecast for the next three months calls for enhanced odds for above median precipitation across California as the state continues to see patterns associated with El Niño.

Through March and perhaps even into May will be prime time for increasingly prominent El Niño effects -including a greatly enhanced subtropical jet stream and periods of enhanced storminess and heavy precipitation throughout California, according to Daniel Swain, Stanford graduate student and prominent weather blogger.

The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which is critical in helping provide water in dry months, also is robust this year, at 115 percent of average, the highest level since 2011.

Santa Rosa has had 19.45 inches of rain to date this season, or 95 percent of normal, Henderson said. San Francisco has logged 13.32 inches, or 102 percent of normal.

San Jose has tallied 8.61 inches, or 113 percent of normal.

“The outlook looks like it will remain above average,” Henderson said of seasonal prospects.

You can reach Staff Writer Clark Mason at 521-5214 or clark.mason@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter@clarkmas.