Plans for a large casino, hotel and entertainment center in Cloverdale are once again moving forward, despite doubts as to whether it can compete with the recently opened Graton Resort & Casino outside Rohnert Park.
The $320 million casino project planned by the Cloverdale Rancheria of Pomo Indians is in the final phase of an environmental review, one of the last steps before the federal Bureau of Indian Affairs can clear the way for gambling on the 65 acres the tribe proposes to develop.
Leaders of the 540-member tribe say they still are committed to the project, although they acknowledge it might be reduced from the proposed size of 596,000 square feet, which would make it the biggest Las Vegas-style casino venue in the county.
"What they are going to build will depend largely on market conditions — on what the market will bear," tribal spokesman Rob Muelrath said Friday.
But even on a smaller scale, there are plenty of skeptics as to whether a casino in Cloverdale is viable, given the new Graton casino's advantage in proximity to the populous Bay Area and heart of Sonoma County.
"They're going to be trying to build a substantial casino in the shadow of a large gaming enterprise between them and San Francisco," said Doug Elmets, who represents five tribes, including those that operate Thunder Valley and Jackson Rancheria casinos closer to Sacramento.
"It's a giant leap to build something when they have a small footprint from which to gather a patron base," he said. "If they are reliant upon the locals' market, they already have established competition from smaller casinos that are probably barely holding on because of Graton."
Alex Bumazhny, a director with Fitch Ratings in New York who analyzes the gambling market, said, "It's possible before Graton this project could have made sense. At this point, it's more questionable."
He said financing for a project could come from bonds or through banks, but "something like that would be pretty difficult to finance, either way."
Bumazhny said that with Graton's more convenient location, about 35 miles to the south along Highway 101, "it will be very difficult in terms of competing for the San Francisco market. There is not a local population base of support, that I know of."
Over the years, different factions of the Cloverdale Rancheria have proposed casinos with various backers for a number of sites in Cloverdale, and even as far away as Santa Rosa and Petaluma in the 1990s.
The current version at the south end of town, adjacent to Highway 101 and Asti Road, has been in the works since 2007, when the tribe confirmed it was partnering with Sealaska — a Juneau-based Native American corporation — to buy the land, finance the casino resort and manage it.
More than a decade ago, Sealaska helped build and manage the 1,750-slot Valley View Casino in San Diego County under a similar arrangement with the San Pasqual Band of Mission Indians.
In a statement issued Friday, the Cloverdale Rancheria said, "this project is a great opportunity to create local jobs, bring additional revenue to the city and county through tourism dollars, and provides an opportunity to collaborate with local businesses."
But the Cloverdale project faces strong opposition from both the City of Cloverdale and County of Sonoma. In their official correspondence, attorneys for the city describe the casino development as a "behemoth," and "gargantuan," completely out of scale for its location.
It will be up to the Bureau of Indian Affairs and U.S. Department of Interior to decide whether it gets approval, as well as the scope of the project. There are several less-preferred alternatives listed by the tribe, including a slightly smaller casino without a hotel, conference center or entertainment facilities.
To open a casino, the Cloverdale tribe also requires a compact from the governor, which needs to be ratified by the Legislature.
So far, the many objections raised by the city, county and others in an environmental review do not appear to be insurmountable for the tribe.
Based on the drawn-out study, the comments, the responses, and the proposed mitigation measures, "we feel the environmental impacts would not be significant," BIA environmental scientist John Rydzik said this week.
The report scrutinizes everything from water to wastewater, traffic, effects on law enforcement, social costs associated with problem gambling and existing socioeconomic conditions. But critics say much of the information is outdated, coming from 2008, at the outset of the recession.
The BIA last month announced it intends to file a final environmental impact statement, but the public and government agencies have until June 2 to submit their last comments.
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