Bay Area shoppers plan to spend more on holidays

Bay Area holiday shoppers appear more optimistic about the economy than the rest of the nation, but more also are worried about their jobs, according to a survey released Monday.

The explanation for the seemingly mixed messages may be that the region is more sharply split between the optimistic and doubtful, with income as the dividing line.

"There's really the tale of two consumers here," said Ellen Basilico, a manager with Deloitte LLP, the accounting firm that released regional results on Monday from its 25th annual holiday shopping survey.

Those with incomes of $100,000 or more expressed a rosier economic outlook for next year, she said. But a large number of other consumers still have "lingering financial concerns," including job security.

One in four Bay Area respondents said they feel their job is "not very" or "not at all" secure. That was the biggest amount of any metropolitan area, and it compared to 20 percent nationally.

Deloitte surveyed 12,400 consumers nationally, including 503 in the Bay Area.

The region's consumers plan to spend on average $1,277 for all holiday spending, compared to $1,160 for the nation.

But Bay Area consumers plan to spend more on socializing/entertaining and less on gifts than the nation. The region's residents intend to spend $577 on socializing and entertaining, compared to $438 nationally.

On gifts, Bay Area residents plan to spend $427 this season, compared to $466 nationally. Only consumers from Seattle and Minneapolis expect to spend less on gifts than those in the Bay Area.

For the nation, 62 percent of consumers said they planned to spend the same amount or more on the holidays compared to last year. That compares with 51 percent of those surveyed in 2009 and 41 percent in 2008.

Half of those surveyed said they feel the economy is either in a recession or heading back into one.

"I think that we're seeing that overall the spending intentions for the consumer are improving, but they're still remaining cautious," said Basilico, Deloitte's retail sector leader for the Northern Pacific region.

The survey was conducted Sept. 23 through Oct. 10.

Robert Eyler, chairman of the Economics Department at Sonoma State University, said the results may have encouraged retailers to try to lure in large numbers of shoppers with big discounts this season.

In what he called a "self-fulfilling prophecy," Eyler said that a large number of consumers predicted they would spend at least as much as last year.

"The retailers are going to provide the conditions to see that prophecy fulfilled," he said.

Shopper Nicole Simpkins of Healdsburg said Monday she probably will spend about the same as last year, but "I'm probably looking for more sales and bargains."

"I'm more conscientious of what I'm spending and what I'm spending it on," said Simpkins, shopping with twin daughters at The Toyworks' store on Santa Rosa Avenue in Santa Rosa.

Still, she said, she felt "cautious optimism" about the economy.

So did Toyworks shopper Suzanne McGee of Santa Rosa. She acknowledged this year she probably was "holding back a little on my shopping." But she expected the economy to grow slowly in 2011 and "I don't think it will go back into recession."