Parched December

Those wishing for a white Christmas this year — or even a soggy one along the coast — should prepare to be disappointed.

The lack of clouds in the past few weeks means this month is on pace to be the second driest December in the North Bay in 80 years of record keeping, with only 0.09 inches of rainfall measured at the official downtown gauge in Santa Rosa.

The long-term forecast shows little change, with only a slight chance of rain between Tuesday and Thursday next week.

That means the current total could stand, placing this month behind only December 1989, when no rain fell. You'd have to go all the way back to 1956 to find the next-driest December, when little more than a third of an inch fell.

The paltry total so far this month does not have forecasters scratching their heads.

The stretch of California that includes the North Coast regularly sees dry stretches of two weeks or longer during the winter, said Bob Benjamin, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

"It's not necessarily indicative of what kind of wet season it will be," Benjamin said.

Most of the region is at about 40 percent of normal rainfall so far this season. Since July 1, Santa Rosa has seen 4.25 inches of rain, with higher totals measured in the coastal mountains.

The trend doesn't have water suppliers wringing their hands just yet. Heavy spring storms tend to be the most critical in filling up reservoirs and replenishing ground water, said Brad Sherwood, spokesman for the Sonoma County Water Agency.

"We're not saying the 'D' word yet," he said, adding that measures to deal with drought would be taken later in the spring if need be.

The scant rainfall this month pales in comparison with last December, when 8.38 inches fell in downtown Santa Rosa.

And it seems downright parched matched up against the highest recorded total for December, which came in 1955, at 17.89 inches.

The 80-year average for the month is 5.76 inches.

Other regions in the state are seeing the same dry pattern. Sacramento is set to finish the month with 0.07 inches, making it the fourth-driest December since 1849, according to the Sacramento Bee.

A La Ni? weather pattern featuring cooler ocean surface temperatures near the equator is to blame. The pattern typically results in drier winters for the Bay Area while regions farther north can see greater average rainfall.

But this year's La Ni? appears to be mild, and back-to-back storms could quickly change things, pushing the region back to normal, said Benjamin, the meteorologist.

Until then, snow seekers are somewhat out of luck. Resorts around Lake Tahoe are making enough snow to cover some of their runs, but little has fallen on the high country that supplies water to the majority of Californians and Central Valley farmers.

Outdoor retailers are hoping for a turnaround. The dry spell has been a doldrums for winter sports equipment and clothing sales, said Ted Harris, manager of Santa Rosa Ski and Sports.

He estimated receipts were down 50 percent from last year, which he conceded was a "phenomenal" one due to record snowfall in the Sierra Nevada and around the West.

"The weather (this year) is a problem for sure," he said.

Those who've studied the state's climate, meanwhile, take it all in stride. "This is California's winter in a nutshell," said Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources. "It's feast or famine. We're hitting the famine side right now."

You can reach Staff Writer Brett Wilkison at 521-5295 or brett.wilkison@pressdemocrat.com.