IN PRIMARY,IT'S A RACE FOR SECOND

What follows are excerpts from the Inside Opinion blog by Press Democrat editorial writers Paul Gullixson and Jim Sweeney. The blog can be found on WatchSonomaCounty.com.

As noted in our April 1 editorial, we began interviewing candidates in the June 5 primary last week. We started by sitting down with those in the 2nd District congressional race.

What stands out is that everyone has a different theory about how this race -- in a newly drawn district that stretches from the Golden Gate Bridge to the Oregon border, crossing six counties -- is going to play out given how the rules have changed. The fall contest will feature the top two finishers rather than a traditional race between the top Democrat and the top Republican, which, frankly hasn't been much of a contest in 20 years.

Retired professor Mike Halliwell of Cotati projects that if the votes from Democrats spread out evenly among Dems, much as it did when Rep. Lynn Woolsey first won in 1992, he and fellow GOP candidate Dan Roberts could end up being the top two.

Hmmm. Maybe. But I wouldn't bank on it.

The prevailing opinion is that this is a race for second place. Assemblyman Jared Huffman has the most name recognition, the most money and most of the key political endorsements, including that of Rep. Mike Thompson, who represented the northern reaches of the 2nd District before redistricting. Thompson has been campaigning with Huffman.

But it could be a different story in the fall if someone like Stacey Lawson takes silver in June. Lawson, a San Rafael businesswoman and Harvard Business School graduate who did well in private industry and is now looking to serve in Congress, got a late start but is keeping pace with Huffman on the fundraising front. Both may end up spending more than $1 million just in the June 5 primary. Should they both be in a runoff, they each could end up spending twice that. And it's likely to get nasty as they battle to see who is the more moderate candidate.

Both have strong liberal credentials. Huffman has the legislative experience, but Lawson has strong support from East Coast funders. Ultimately this could become a gender battle as Lawson has the backing of Emily's List and other organizations that want to see this remain, as Petaluma City Councilwoman Tiffany Renee calls it, a "woman's seat."

On a side note, the Economist magazine recently reported that "even though a record number (of women) are running for the Senate, women are competing in fewer than a third of congressional races this year." We're reprinting this column on Monday. Look for it on page B5.

-- Paul Gullixson

Given the recent oral arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court, I'm thinking again about the health insurance mandate. When I've compared it to auto insurance mandates, some people argued that it's an issue of federalism -- states can impose a requirement (and people legally avoid it by not driving), but it's outside the authority of the federal government. For that sake of argument, let's accept that premise and assume the Supreme Court agrees.

Where does that leave us? I see three possibilities.

First, no change from our present circumstance, with costs climbing at an unsustainable rate and those of us who have insurance continuing to pay, by various estimates, about $1,000 a year in extra premiums to cover the cost of caring for the uninsured.

Second, we adopt a single-payer system modeled on Medicare or Canada or any of a number of European countries. The constitutional arguments probably were settled in the Social Security challenges, but it would be every bit as divisive politically as Obama's plan -- and a lot more accurately described as a government takeover or socialism .

Third, we could rescind the requirement that doctors and hospitals treat the uninsured. If you're not covered and can't negotiate a price that satisfies the provider, you're out of luck. Am I missing a better option?

-- Jim Sweeney

A thought on Thursday's pension forum in Santa Rosa: There was some discussion about whether this pension crisis is primarily a problem of investment performance, one that will be rectified as the stock market recovers.

What many seem to forget is that newspapers, including us, were writing about unfunded liabilities and runaway costs of retirement benefits back in 2006, well before the bubble burst.

Furthermore, David Crane, the former economic adviser for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, now a lecturer in the Public Policy Program at Stanford University, recently blogged that pension funds "need the Dow to be over 29,000 now -- more than twice its current level -- in order to meet the return guaranteed from 2000-2012." He projects that the Dow would have to be over 29,000 now to meet the returns guaranteed from 2000-2012.

In order to meet the giveaways and pension guarantees the state made in 1999, "by 2016 -- just four years from now - the Dow needs to triple," he wrote.

Again, it could happen. But I wouldn't bank on it.

-- Paul Gullixson

One of the rites of a California election is candidates fighting in court over their ballot designation, the two- or three-word description of their occupation.

Columnist Ruben Navarrette Jr. wrote about efforts to prevent Jose Hernandez, a state Assembly candidate in the Central Valley, from listing himself as an astronaut. Hernandez, who was a Space Shuttle crew member before entering politics, prevailed. Most of these disputes are much more prosaic -- candidates who want to be listed as "small business owner" or "educator" instead of, egads, "incumbent" or "legislator" or, cover your eyes, "lawyer."

Here are a few highlights from this year's list, which was just published by the secretary of state. Alex Easton-Brown, an Assembly candidate from Marin County, lists himself as a pension reform coordinator. Orly Taitz, the Orange County woman who has made a career of filing lawsuits claiming Barack Obama isn't a U.S. citizen, is doctor/attorney/businesswoman. Larry Fritzlan, a Marin County congressional candidate, is a psychoterhapist/interventionist/businessman. Greg Akili, a Southern California Assembly candidate, is a Social Security advocate.

I always check the listing for Pam Elizondo, a perennial candidate from Mendocino County. This year, she's running for Assembly as an "environmental healing consultant." In 1994, she ran for state Senate and wanted to be listed on the ballot as "welfare mother."

That one didn't fly in court.

-- Jim Sweeney