Gullixson: Five reasons why Sonoma County Supervisor Efren Carrillo's selection as chairman is not so shocking

What conclusions should Sonoma County voters come to about the unanimous decision by the Board of Supervisors last week to name Efren Carrillo as chairman of the board? Readers seem to have found dozens.

'I was shocked and dismayed,' wrote Marsha Taylor of Santa Rosa in a letter Friday. 'No wonder so many people are turned off by politics.'

Observed another local resident in a comment online, 'With the appointment … it is obvious and apparent that the status of women in Sonoma County remains very low.'

The reactions are understandable. After all, it was just a year and eight months ago that Carrillo's colleagues were unanimously calling for Carrillo's resignation in the aftermath of his arrest for a late-night escapade involving underwear, socks, alcohol and an attempted entry into the home of a woman neighbor who was left terrorized. You know the story.

But here are some reasons why this decision may not be so surprising.

First, like it or not, it was Carrillo's turn. There is no great magic to serving as chairman. By board policy, the job rotates among the five supervisors. Currently, the rotation is District 5, 3, 4, 2, 1. Carrillo served as vice chairman last year and was in line to swing the gavel this year. The supervisors tipped their hand when the invitations went out before Christmas to the annual State of the County breakfast on Jan. 27. The email indicated the State of the County address would be delivered by Carrillo. By tradition, that honor is reserved for the head of the board.

Supervisor David Rabbitt said last week that he sees taking a turn as chairman as part of the job, and to bypass a supervisor would be to shortchange that individual's district. 'I don't think there was any question that we were going to go in the order that we had established,' he told me.

Carrillo said much the same when we spoke on Friday. While he said he was honored to be selected, 'I will be the first to say I'm not of the belief that the chair has any greater powers or decisions than any other member. We really are a collective board,' he said.

So is this a sign of the board's restored confidence in him? He was hesitant to go that far.

'I've said before that I made mistakes and wanted to hold myself accountable and that I was going to work hard to earn back the public's trust and that of my colleagues,' he said. 'While I hope this (vote) was an indication of that, my job will be to not take that for granted, but to continue to move forward … We've got work to do.'

So this leads to the second and more significant reason this move may not be as significant as some people think — because it's unlikely that Carrillo will be seeking re-election this year.

He told me on Friday that he was not prepared to answer for certain. 'We have not formulated a decision or a timetable for when a decision is going to be made one way or the other,' he said. 'I honestly can tell you today that I don't know.'

Fair enough. But he has raised no money. He has no campaign in place and, by all appearances, has made no attempt to get one started. Meanwhile, Supervisors Shirlee Zane (3rd District) and Susan Gorin (1st District), who also are up for re-election, kicked off their campaigns two months ago. The filing deadline is not until March, but the clock is ticking for Carrillo who would face enough challenges without the added burden of a hastily assembled campaign.

Third, given that, the risk of having him serve as chairman is minimal — aside from the potential for public blowback. If he were running, I would guess that making him chairman would have been more of an issue. But that is probably moot.

Fourth, two words: Noreen Evans. Now that she has moved to Sebastopol and is in the process of selling her Rincon Valley home, it seems likely that Evans will be running for Carrillo's 5th District seat.

Given her experience as a member of the state Senate, state Assembly and the Santa Rosa City Council, her support within the environmental and labor communities and her name recognition, Evans is a formidable candidate and would have to be considered the front-runner, regardless of whether Carrillo runs.

Evans already is encountering some pushback to the idea of a Santa Rosa-based elected official moving to the 5th District to run for office. (She ran for the 3rd District supervisor in 2000, losing by a mere 4 percentage points to incumbent Tim Smith. But that position is now held by her friend Zane, whom Evans is unlikely to try to unseat). But Evans can counter that she is no newcomer given that she already represented that district while serving in the state Legislature.

That leads to the fifth reason: Eric Koenigshofer.

As a friend and adviser to Carrillo, Koenigshofer, the longtime Occidental attorney who represented the district on the Board of Supervisors from 1977 to 1981, has made clear that he would not run against Carrillo. But with Carrillo out, it seems clear that he's in, even thought he has not announced.

As a respected attorney who knows that district and knows county politics, he, too, would be a formidable opponent. In fact, he may be the only one with enough experience and name recognition to defeat Evans.

There are certainly other strong candidates. Tawny Tesconi, the former county fair manager, is a viable contender with public service experience and deep community roots. But it's not clear how much support she has. Frankly, it also strikes me as odd how she took the job as director of the county's General Services Department in June and then promptly retired at the end of the year. A pretty quick about-face.

The big unknown is Lynda Hopkins, a Forestville resident and independent farmer who so far is the only announced candidate. The Stanford grad and former executive director of Sonoma County Farm Trails impressed people with her attempts to find a compromise concerning the controversial development proposed by the Lytton Band of Pomo Indians outside Windsor. But her lack of political and campaign experience will be hard to overcome, particularly going up against more seasoned candidates.

Former county Planning Commissioner Rue Furch, who lost by a mere 600 votes to Carrillo in 2009, also is reportedly considering another run. But it's not clear where she would get her support if Evans is in the mix.

Handicapping a race that has but one horse at the moment is a fool's errand. But if pressed, my guess is that the 5th District contest will come down to a runoff between Evans and Koenigshofer, and the debate this summer will be about how the outcome of that showdown could shift the balance of power on the Board of Supervisors. Either way, the discussion won't be about who was voted board chairman in January, and Carrillo will be allowed to end his once-promising career on a something of a high note, modest as it is.

Paul Gullixson is editorial director for The Press Democrat. Email him at paul. gullixson@pressdemocrat.com.