Something happened to Chip Kelly’s offense.
In 2013, it was one heck of an offense. Definitely top-two in the league. Unstoppable most of the time. Kelly, a rookie head coach in the NFL, seemed like a genius, a revolutionary. Maybe the next Bill Walsh.
But only two years later, Kelly’s offense was decidedly stoppable and the Philadelphia Eagles fired him just like that.
I have a theory.
Kelly wants to play as fast as he can and run more plays than the other team. But, is fast offense always quality offense? To find out, we must account for pace and calculate yards per play. Forget total yards and total points. We’re concerned only with how many yards Kelly’s offense gains on average every time the center snaps the ball. Got it?
In 2013, Kelly’s offense averaged 6.3 yards per play — second-best in the NFL. A great offense any way you look at it.
In 2014, Kelly’s offense again averaged 6.3 yards per play through the first three games, and the Eagles were 3-0. At this point, Kelly’s record as an NFL head coach was 13-6. A flat-out superstar.
Then, Week 4, he faced the 49ers, and everything changed.
In that game, the Eagles averaged only 3.8 yards per play and scored zero points. The hottest offense in the NFL looked like a total joke. A botched experiment. A mere gimmick.
Here’s what really happened: Niners defensive coordinator Vic Fangio discovered the key weakness in Kelly’s offense. From that day until the day Kelly got fired (a span of 28 games), his offense averaged only 5.4 yards per play — below the league average during that time — and his record was merely 13-15 during those 28 games.
What did Fangio discover? What was the Fangio-blueprint the rest of the league followed?
Here’s my theory:
Fangio realized how to stop Kelly’s favorite play: The zone-read. That’s when the quarterback stands in the shotgun and sticks the ball in the running back’s belly without giving it to him right away. For a split second, the defense doesn’t know who will grab the ball and run — the tailback or the quarterback. A very tricky play NFL defenses couldn’t stop when the Eagles ran it.
Fangio figured out the play wasn’t really a “zone-read.” No “reading” occurred. Nick Foles, the Eagles quarterback, didn’t read the defensive end, didn’t look for an opportunity to run when it was available. Foles was bluffing the run. He had zero intention of keeping the ball. He simply wanted to give it to the running back and get out of the way. The play was really a “zone-give.”
Against San Francisco, Foles carried the ball just once and gained only 1 yard. The Niners didn’t have to worry about him running, so they could focus on tackling Eagles running back LeSean McCoy, which was easy enough. The Niners held him to just 17 rushing yards. Checkmate.
Until Kelly finds a quarterback whose legs a defense must respect, Kelly’s offense will continue to struggle. It’s that simple. Don’t listen to any “expert” who tells you Kelly’s quarterback needs to be accurate or quick-thinking above all else. That’s wrong. Kelly’s quarterback has to be a runner.
SUPER BOWL 50
Get ready for the invasion. The Denver Broncos are coming to the Bay Area, as are the Carolina Panthers, and a lot of their fans, and corporate executives and hangers-on and other Super Bowl enthusiasts willing (or even eager) to join the mobs and traffic jams.
Here’s what to expect over the next few days.
THE NFL EXPERIENCE: Part carnival, part NFL skills test, part museum, the pro football “interactive theme park” opened yesterday at the Moscone Center in San Francisco and will remain open every day through the Super Bowl. Check times before you go.
TOUCHDOWN!: The Broncos are scheduled to land at Mineta San Jose International Airport at approximately 2:30 p.m. today. The Panthers touch down at the same airport at about 3:30 p.m. They will not be gathered around one of the luggage carousels.
CIRCUS COMES TO TOWN: The annual Super Bowl Media Day has evolved into Super Bowl Opening Night. It will be held at SAP Center in San Jose (where the Sharks play) from 5 to 8 p.m. on Monday. Watch for scantily clad models, Star Wars costumes, clown outfits and other tools of the journalistic trade.
CHANGE OF LEVI’S: Levi’s Stadium, home of the 49ers, has been given a major facelift. The south end is painted with the Broncos logo, the north end with the Panthers logo. The Broncos are the designated home team and will use the 49ers’ locker room, though for some reason the Panthers will stand on the 49ers’ sideline. Denver has elected to wear its white jerseys, perhaps because the team is 0-4 wearing orange in the Super Bowl.
PRACTICE, PRACTICE, PRACTICE: The Broncos will stay at the Santa Clara Marriott and practice at Stanford. The Panthers will stay at the San Jose Marriott and practice at San Jose State. All practices are closed to the public.
AWARDS SEASON: The NFL will announce its Man of the Year and Coach of the Year awards on Friday. The next night the league will divulge its Player of the Year, and the 2016 Pro Football Hall of Fame class will be announced. Among the finalists are former 49ers owner Eddie DeBartolo Jr. and wide receiver Terrell Owens, and late Raiders quarterback Ken Stabler.
AND FINALLY: Yes, there is a game. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m., Feb. 7, at Levi’s. Ticket prices on StubHub were starting at $3,000 on Friday. It’s free to watch from your home on CBS.
— Phil Barber