Predicted offshore wind event in Sonoma County called off

An offshore wind event predicted to occur next week across the Bay Area has fizzled, forecasters said, relieving worries of heightened wildfire risk.

Winds initially expected in the area, including in Sonoma County, had changed direction, National Weather Service meteorologist Rick Canepa said late Wednesday afternoon.

“It looks like the system that might have gotten close to the Bay Area is going to be taking a much more northerly track across northern Canada, Montana and the Dakotas,” Canepa said. “There is a dramatic difference in the models. That’s how complex weather is.”

The weather service uses weather models as a guide for their predictions. Some models forecast far into the future — which aren’t typically very accurate — and other “higher resolution” models that forecast a few days out.

The latter showed a five-day time frame “giving us a little more confidence that we don’t need to worry as much” of a massive wind event next week drying out vegetation and increasing fire danger, as often happens this time of year, Canepa said.

Instead, the area will continue to experience typical offshore winds, he said.

“At some point there will be a low (pressure system) forming just to the west next week,” Canepa said. A low pressure system is a mass of warm, moist air that generally brings stormy weather with strong winds.

The last time there was an offshore wind event in the county was Oct. 12, 2021.

While it brought much-needed precipitation to the area, the rainstorm last month was not enough to ease current wildfire concerns, Santa Rosa Fire Marshal Paul Lowenthal said.

“Fires can happen really any time of the year, but the level of activity and intensity is going to vary depending on the time of the year,” he said.

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You can reach Staff Writer Kathleen Coates at kathleen.coates@pressdemocrat.com or 7-7-521-5209. Sara Edwards is the business reporter for The Press Democrat. You can reach her at 707-521-5487 or sara.edwards@pressdemocrat.com. Follow her on Twitter @sedwards380.