1 in 3 LA County residents have been infected by COVID-19, new estimate shows
One in three Los Angeles County residents have been infected with the coronavirus, according to new estimates by county scientists, an astonishing sign of how rapidly the virus is spreading in the hard-hit region.
The estimate, based on scientific modeling, means officials believe more than 3 million of L.A. County's 10 million residents have been infected with the coronavirus, including nearly 13,000 who have died.
That's more than triple the cumulative number of coronavirus cases that have been confirmed by testing. Officials have long believed that testing only captures a certain percentage of those who are infected because many with the virus don't show symptoms or suffer only mild symptoms.
The rising number of those infected has actually slowed the pace of coronavirus transmission, as the virus is increasingly coming into contact with people who have survived the infection and likely developed immunity.
"Unfortunately, we are still engaging in behaviors that facilitate spread of the virus, so it is still able to find plenty of susceptible people to infect," said Dr. Roger Lewis, director of COVID-19 hospital demand modeling for the L.A. County Department of Health Services.
About 75% of L.A. County's population will need to be immune to the virus through widespread vaccinations to dramatically slow its spread, Lewis estimated. Even if half of L.A. County's population were immune, "and yet we decide to just pretend that we don't have to take precautions, we will still have a very, very devastating pandemic."
L.A. County averaged more than 15,000 new coronavirus cases a day over the past week — one of the highest such rates seen so far in the pandemic.
Surpassing 15,000 new coronavirus cases a day takes the county to a level that officials have warned may tip L.A. County's overwhelmed hospitals into a worse catastrophe, straining resources and stretching staffing to a point that healthcare officials may have to choose which patients receive the attention of critical care nurses and respiratory therapists and access to ventilators and which patients receive palliative care.
Officials have been urging residents to take even more precautions to avoid getting sick.
When leaving home to access essential services, L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said, people should bring sanitizing wipes to disinfect their cellphones, car keys, work stations and door handles — anything they might touch that others also have touched. Health officials also suggested avoiding eating or drinking with anyone not in your household, washing or sanitizing your hands every hour if you're around others, and taking a break from shopping.
They also issued a new recommendation: People who live with elderly residents or with residents who have an underlying medical condition and must go out of their households should wear a mask at home.
More than 1,600 dead in a weekMore than 1,600 people in Los Angeles County have died from COVID-19 in the last week — a toll Ferrer called "tragic, upsetting and, frankly, overwhelming" and a sign of extraordinary danger as the possibly more contagious variant of the virus begins to spread in California.
Follow virus precautions "as if your life or the life of a loved one depends on it," she said during a briefing Wednesday. "Because it just may."
Over the weeklong period ending Wednesday, an average of 232 people died daily from COVID-19 countywide, according to data compiled by The Times. By comparison, the confirmed death toll in the Northridge earthquake — which struck the Southland almost exactly 27 years ago — was 57.
Just in the past seven days, the county set, then tied, its daily record for new coronavirus-related deaths, with 318.
The last week represents an acceleration, though not an aberration. A total of 2,904 L.A. County residents have died from COVID-19 over the last 14 days — a number that represents nearly one-fourth of the county's cumulative death toll, which is just short of 13,000.
"Your infection could lead to dozens of other infections in just a matter of a few days, and someone along that path of transmission could very well die from COVID-19," Ferrer said. "These are just not normal times, and so we can't go out and just continue to act like nothing is going on."
Ferrer did not rule out issuing additional restrictions.
"We are considering all options at this point," she said Wednesday, without elaborating on what new orders might look like.
"We are very, very worried about the continued high number of cases here," Ferrer said, "and I feel like there really is not a huge window here to try to get the surge under control."
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