Chris Rogers holds slim lead in tight race among Democrats for Assembly District 2 seat

With six candidates competing across five counties, it may be days before North Coast voters learn which Democrat moves on in the Assembly District 2 general race in November.

Early primary election results showed Santa Rosa City Council member Chris Rogers holding a slim lead over his Democratic opponents in the hotly contested primary, though tens of thousands of ballots were still arriving by mail at election headquarters Wednesday and had yet to be counted.

According to updates from Humboldt, Trinity, Del Norte, Mendocino and Sonoma counties Wednesday, Rogers led with 19.6% of the vote over California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks, who had 18.9% in for second place in the crowded seven candidate field.

Republican candidate Mike Greer led all six Democratic candidates with 28% of the votes reported so far. The district’s Republican contingent appeared to be turning out in sufficient numbers to send Greer, a Del Norte school board trustee, into the general election.

Healdsburg councilwoman Ariel Kelley held 14.3%, and Yurok Tribal Vice Chairman Frankie Myers held 10.8%. Mendocino County Supervisor Ted WIlliams had 7.1%.

Because Democrats have a commanding registration advantage, the Democrat who joins Greer on the ballot is likely to win in November.

“We feel really good,” Rogers told The Press Democrat Tuesday night. “We knew that Sonoma County in particular was going to show up.”

The early voting totals mostly represented in-person votes, and most of the counties reported having counted ballots from only around 20% of registered voters.

Kelley and Hicks said they believed the small percentage of votes counted so far left plenty of room for shifts in the race over the days to come.

“I’m feeling optimistic ... we ran a good campaign,” Kelley said. “Now we just wait.”

Hicks said the results so far mostly indicate “it was a contested election. There’s a lot more vote to be counted.”

Myers too saw plenty of opportunity to make up the gaps. “Looking at the numbers I don’t think its so far off,” he said. “We’re in the mix.”

Ballots delivered by mail or dropped off in person on Election Day have to be verified, unlike votes cast at a polling place on Election Day. That can make for slower vote counting by election officials as they ensure mailed ballots are valid.

The race to replace Assembly member Jim Wood in a district that stretches from Santa Rosa to the Oregon border was always going to be a competitive — as open statehouse seats where there is no incumbent do not come around often.

Wood has held the seat since 2014. Term limits would have forced him out in 2026, but in November, he suddenly announced an earlier retirement to spend more time with his elderly mother.

Six Democrats quickly jumped into the race: former radio host Cynthia Click of Willits, Mendocino County Supervisor Ted Williams, Healdsburg City Council member Ariel Kelley, Santa Rosa City Council member Chris Rogers, Yurok Tribal Vice Chairman Frankie Myers and Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party.

Click dropped out and endorsed Myers. Williams hung in and pushed his opponents on issues during debates, saying he was committed to ensuring the district’s rural issues remained part of the discussion. However he did not raise or spend significant amounts of money to push his message out to voters, campaign filings show.

Myers, Rogers, Hicks and Kelley have run competitive campaigns, sending mailers and trying to reach voters with digital messaging and, in the case of the latter two, television ads.

With campaign finance filings, which are still limited at this point, showing well over $3 million raised and spent in the race, veterans of the North Coast’s political scene say it’s the most expensive race in at least the last decade.

Much of that spending was driven by the campaigns of Kelley and Hicks, or political action committees supporting them. Hicks, who moved to Arcata in 2021 and has faced attack ads labeling him a “carpetbagger” from a PAC supporting Kelley, has sought to leverage his statewide connections to show voters he can be an asset for North Coast communities in Sacramento.

He sewed up endorsements from Gov. Gavin Newsom and many other big California political names. Wood also endorsed Hicks. Hicks also raised hundreds of thousands of dollars from outside the district, tapping labor groups, lobbyists and wealthy Southern California residents he’s worked with as chair of the Los Angeles Labor Federation and later of the state Democratic Party.

Kelley has competed with Hicks’ spending by drawing on her personal wealth and her own network of supporters from inside and outside the district. The former Healdsburg mayor has sought to showcase a resume in both local government, land use law and experience directing nonprofits.

She was endorsed by Sonoma County Sheriff Eddie Engram, firefighters groups and groups that promote women candidates and officeholders.

A PAC supporting her, meanwhile, focused on attacking Hicks, whose campaign responded in kind.

Rogers sought to stay out of the negative campaigns, calling publicly for less mudslinging. But in the waning days of the race he faced his own attacks, with mailers produced by the California Association of Realtors that distorted facts about homelessness in Santa Rosa while questioning Rogers’ leadership.

Rogers has emphasized his history of public service in Santa Rosa, particularly after the deadly 2017 firestorm. He also highlighted his efforts at grassroots campaigning in the rest of the district. He was endorsed by Senate President Mike McGuire and a number of other local and regional elected officials.

Myers was the least well funded of the competitive candidates, reporting raising around $158,000 as of last week. On March 1, a political action committee opened to back him, funded with $39,000 from the Wilton Rancheria, which is in Elk Grove near Sacramento.

Myers ran on his role in the tribe’s impressive record of environmental restoration projects, including a key role in the effort to remove dams from the Klamath River. He has emphasized the history-making nature of his campaign and also touted his experience as a tribal leader in working on policy issues with state and federal officials like Newsom.

You can reach Staff Writer Andrew Graham at 707-526-8667 or andrew.graham@pressdemocrat.com. Follow him on X (Twitter) @AndrewGraham88