‘A parade of precipitation’ coming to Sonoma County starting Sunday

Pull out those umbrellas: Rain is predicted to start after 11 a.m. Sunday and will continue through Saturday, except for a break on Monday.

That first storm should bring 0.05 to 0.25 inch, with higher amounts in the coastal mountains of Sonoma County, said National Weather Service meteorologist Brooke Bingaman.

“For the upcoming week after Monday we’ll have what I call ‘a parade of precipitation,’ especially in Sonoma County,” she said. “All these storms are coming from the west over the Pacific Ocean and they they will be tracking eastward across California.”

In addition, temperatures will drop precipitously, with a high of 61 expected Sunday, followed by highs in the mid-60s and low 70s through Saturday.

So how much will it rain?

“The models are trending that we will see a half an inch up to almost 3 inches,” Bingaman said.

Because during a typical October in Santa Rosa there is little to no rainfall, any measurable precipitation past about a quarter-inch could be considered a record-breaking amount based on past records.

Will the wildfire season be over if the uppermost rainfall prediction comes true?

“I’m not a fire agency, so it’s not my call to say what amount ends the fire season, but it’s definitely helpful precipitation for Sonoma County,” Bingaman said.

Tyree Zander, the region’s Cal Fire spokesperson, explained that, nope, it’s not that simple.

“We don’t go by rainfall. It’s based off what the weather will be after the event,” he said. “The fuel moisture has to be tested. Usually it doesn’t take just one event.”

“Fuel” refers to dry grasses and weeds that are typical throughout the North Bay and state landscape in the summer and fall.

There are many variables involved, Zander said.

“We could get a rain spell this week, but the next two or three weeks it could go up to 90.”

He pointed out that rain has been forecast in recent weeks and storms haven’t panned out.

“You have to remember California is never really out of fire season anymore,” Zander said. “With extreme drought it would take a lot of consistent moisture. We haven’t had significant rain for at least a year. ... Whether it’s winter, spring, fall or summer, we should always be in a fire-safe mindset.”

So far in California this year, nearly 2 million acres and 3,050 structures have burned. Sonoma County has been spared the horrific wildfires of recent summers.

A similar forecast is in place for the week in surrounding counties, with slightly cooler temperatures in Mendocino, Napa and Lake counties.

The National Weather Service Bay Area forecast through the month shows rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms coming on most days.

You can reach Staff Writer Kathleen Coates at kathleen.coates@pressdemocrat.com.