After monthslong plateau, Sonoma County COVID-19 hospitalizations see slight uptick

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Sonoma County have jumped precipitously in recent days, potentially following a statewide pattern driven by the highly infectious omicron subvariant BA.5.

Local hospitalizations had held steady since the recent surge started about two months ago, but increased from 32 on July 7 to 57 on July 11, a 78% increase in just four days, according to the county COVID-19 dashboard.

That number decreased to 45 on July 12, according to the latest state data.

Dr. Kismet Baldwin, the county’s deputy health officer, said it’s difficult to establish a trend based on “a day or two at a time” of hospital data; a spike one day could come back down the next.

But Baldwin said the recent increase may be a sign that Sonoma County is following the rest of the state and country. And it’s clearly a sign that COVID-19 has not gone away.

“The Bay Area has seen, and the state has seen, and the U.S. has seen a kind of slow increase in hospitalizations over the last probably few weeks. That has been a general trend,” she said. “Everyone should be aware of is that … COVID is still here, it hasn't gone away.”

Health care experts believe the recent spike in cases is being partly driven by the highly transmissible BA. 5 variant and other subvariants. Sonoma County, however, has been experiencing a sort of reprieve from the worst outcomes of the most recent surge, which started in mid-May.

For weeks, county health officials have been saying the latest pandemic surge has not caused the kind of severe illness seen a year ago. The “decoupling” between extremely high COVID-19 case rates, on the one hand, and subsequent hospitalizations and deaths is a pattern on par with what health officials are seeing nationally, said Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at University of California, Berkeley.

Swartzberg said Sonoma County’s infection rates and test positivity rates, though currently high, have remained lower than other Bay Area counties. It’s unclear why, he said.

“I don't know why Sonoma County's cases per 100,000 is lower than other Bay Area counties. I also don't know if this is going to continue,” he said in an email.

Swartzberg said COVID-19 trends are “devilishly difficult” to predict.

“While one county may be hit hard, another not too far away may be doing well,” he said. “But, don't count on that to last. Over time, there's no county that consistently escapes contending with COVID.”

Some of these patients have what is referred to as incidental COVID-19, meaning they’re in the hospital for something other than COVID-19 but have tested positive for the virus. Throughout the pandemic, local hospitals have tested all patients admitted into the hospital.

Baldwin said she has not heard of any medical providers being overwhelmed by COVID-19 case loads or having the kind of staffing problems that plagued local hospitals at various times during the pandemic.

New COVID-19 infection rates, currently 31.7 new cases per 100,000 residents, have actually come down slightly since June 24, when the rate was 40.6 new cases per 100,000 people. Baldwin said the recent holidays, summer gatherings and new variants, including BA. 5 and BA. 4, are likely keeping COVID-19 ever present in the community.

Baldwin stressed that the best protection against the virus is vaccination. Indoor masking, limiting the size of gatherings, staying home when sick, are all strongly recommended, she added.

“You don't want to transmit it or spread it to other people,” she said. “Really consider the risks and the benefits of activities that you are participating in — those are still holding true and they're probably even more important now that we're starting to see an uptick in hospitalizations.”

On Wednesday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization for a new COVID-19 vaccine by Novavax. The vaccine, which the FDA approved for people 18 and older, offers an alternative to mRNA vaccines, which some Americans have resisted getting.

“Authorizing an additional COVID-19 vaccine expands the available vaccine options for the prevention of COVID-19, including the most severe outcomes that can occur such as hospitalization and death,” FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf said in a statement.

According to the New York Times, 22% of Americans have yet to receive a COVID-19 vaccine shot.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.