Clearing skies ahead as rain tapers off, next few systems veer around Sonoma County

Wet weather continued Saturday across the North Bay, with between 1 to 2½ inches of rain falling in Sonoma County by 10 a.m. And while there’s still some rain on the horizon, the worst appears to be over.

The National Weather Service said conditions will begin to clear Monday after nearly three weeks of ferocious, deadly storms that have wrought havoc around California and taken the lives of at least 19 people, including at least four in Sonoma and Mendocino counties.

Even the storm systems still ahead, Sunday into Monday and Wednesday afternoon, are aimed to the south and to the north of Sonoma County and will mean less rain than has generally been the case, meteorologist Colby Goatley said.

Wednesday’s storm is predicted to mainly target the Pacific Northwest, likely dropping less than one-tenth of an inch of rain locally, Goatley said.

“After that, it finally starts to move out of the region and give everyone a break,” he said.

Saturday’s storm appeared to pass with few repercussions for most of Sonoma County, despite windy conditions and steady rain in the early morning hours, followed by scattered heavy rain during the day.

There were several reports of additional power outages and downed trees, including a massive tree that fell on a pickup and crushed it Saturday afternoon in Hopland, emergency officials said.

The driver, a man traveling on Old River Road toward Ukiah, told fire personnel he “stopped just in time” to avoid serious injury. He used the lever to fold his seat down and was able to climb from the bent wreckage with “a couple little cuts,” said Tom Fletcher, an apparatus engineer with the Hopland Fire Protection District.

More than 1,800 Sonoma County customers were without power Saturday morning, including a few whose lights went out Jan. 4, though many more lost power Friday afternoon and early Saturday, according to county spokesperson Gilbert Martinez. That number was reduced to 1,100 by Saturday afternoon.

While most eyes were focused on the Russian River, the storm’s impact was less than anticipated, at least in Guerneville.

The river surpassed its 15-foot flood stage in Hopland, closing Highway 175 just east of U.S. Highway 101, and was forecast to crest at 16.4 feet around 5 p.m. Saturday before receding, according to the California Nevada River Forecast Center.

In Guerneville, meanwhile, the river was projected to peak Sunday morning at 30 feet, or 2 feet below flood stage, before receding substantially in the coming days — reaching nearly 17 feet below flood level by Thursday — and easing the concerns of river communities after weeks of living on edge, with frequent predictions of flooding.

The overabundance of rain has brought Lake Sonoma from a historic low of 96,310 acre-feet Dec. 9 to 206,611 acre-feet Friday. That’s 84% of its water supply capacity and slightly above the average level from 2013 to 2022, which included more drought years than not. (An acre-foot is equal to 325,851 gallons, or about the amount of water needed to flood most of a football field 1-foot deep. It would supply the indoor and outdoor needs of three average households using water efficiently for a year.)

Lake Mendocino is so full, at 20,000 acre-feet above its flood control level, that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is going to take advantage of declining flows Monday to release some water from the reservoir.

The lake was at 88,347 acre-feet Friday, almost a week after rising to flood control level of 68,400 acre-feet for the first time in three years, said Nick Malasavage, chief of operations and readiness for the U.S. Army Corps Golden Gate District, which co-manages the two reservoirs with Sonoma Water.

It will be the first time in four years there’s been enough water in the lake to merit any releases, given three years of excruciating drought and extreme water conservation measures. The reservoir reached its second-lowest level in history Oct. 22, 2021, hitting 12,864 acre-feet.

The decision to release water was based largely on the diminishing water level projected on the river in Hopland once it has crested, Malasavage said.

“We don’t want to ebb up the release and prolong a peak or create a second peak,” he said.

Malasavage said he expected the dam gates would be opened about midday Monday, with a gradual increase to about 1,000 acre-feet being released and at least 3,000 total being let go from the reservoir.

You can reach Staff Writer Mary Callahan (she/her) at 707-521-5249 or mary.callahan@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @MaryCallahanB.